Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
$75.22-2.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TPB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TPB — debt issuance
Dated 2025-11-05
by reference. In connection with the additional $200,000,000 of Common Stock that may be sold pursuant to the prospectus supplement, as amended by the amendment, Milbank LLP provided the Company with the legal opinion attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 5.1. The sales agents and their respective affiliates have engaged, and may in the future engage, in commercial and investment banking transactions with the Company in the ordinary course of their businesses. They have recei…
Why it matters: An increase in guidance shows management's confidence in growth. It can drive stock interest.
Supportive ifManagement raises sales guidance for Modern Oral. It is now over $300 million for FY 2026.
Worry ifManagement keeps sales guidance for Modern Oral. It is under $280 million for FY 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it signals a positive shift in company momentum. This could improve investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in Q3 exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Modern Oral sales shows the company's ability to capture market share. This is key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifQ3 Modern Oral gross revenue increases year over year by more than 130%.
Worry ifModern Oral gross revenue growth falls below 130% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show the company is managing costs while investing in growth. It reflects overall financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is $25 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $20 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$186 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $490 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,058 loss on $10,000 · 50.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Slower growth in SG&A expenses shows better cost management. This can help make more money.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses grow less than 50% year over year.
Worry ifSG&A expenses grow more than 50% year over year.
Why it matters: Improvement in Zig-Zag sales would indicate better performance in a key segment. This can offset declines in other areas.
Supportive ifZig-Zag segment net sales increase quarter over quarter.
Worry ifZig-Zag segment net sales continue to decline quarter over quarter.