Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-11-05
$67.47-4.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TPB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 22.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 3 industry peers
TPB — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-21
CEO — Graham Purdy: The CEO resigned for personal reasons but was immediately succeeded by the Executive Chairman, indicating an orderly succession rather than a disruptive loss.
Why it matters: TPB narrowed its EBITDA range and said freight costs remain high. Q3 results will show whether profit can stay within that range.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is at least $17.4 million, leaving a pace that can reach $70 million for the year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is below $17.4 million, making the $70 million lower end harder to reach. Or TPB cuts the range again.
Why it matters: David Glazek became CEO on October 1. His first earnings call can show whether the sales and profit goals stay in place.
Watch forOn the November 9 earnings call, Glazek keeps the $260 million to $270 million Modern Oral net sales goal. Glazek also keeps the $70 million to $80 million EBITDA range.
Also watch forGlazek lowers the Modern Oral net sales goal or the EBITDA range. Or Glazek says the company cannot meet them.
Why it matters: Modern Oral made up 48% of Q2 net sales and grew fast. More growth would support the company's main sales goal.
Supportive ifOn the November 9 earnings call, TPB reports Q3 Modern Oral net sales above $68.4 million. It keeps its $260 million to $270 million full-year net sales goal.
Worry ifQ3 Modern Oral net sales are $68.4 million or less, or TPB cuts its $260 million to $270 million full-year goal.
Why it matters: Zig-Zag sales fell in both reported 2026 quarters. A return to growth would ease the drag from this part of the business.
Supportive ifQ3 Zig-Zag net sales are above the year-earlier quarter's level.
Worry ifQ3 Zig-Zag net sales fall year over year for a third straight reported quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$186 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $456 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,132 loss on $10,000 · 61.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.