Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-11-04
$70.40+4.62%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.94 → 1.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TPB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Modern Oral sales grow and support overall revenue growth | The company invests in Modern Oral sales to drive growth. | Intact | Modern Oral sales decline or fail to grow in FY26 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TPB is a growth-oriented consumer staples business, with its long-term thesis centered on expanding Modern Oral sales and market share. The thesis is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and risk is elevated; recent financial performance is neutral.
Valuation is at a 1.38 premium to peers, with a durable premium identified as the main driver. The expectations gap is modestly negative, but model confidence is low, so the evidence on what the market assumes is limited. Valuation has risen recently, while the priced-in assessment says fragility remains low and justified.
Near term, Modern Oral growth is strong: Q2 gross revenue rose 149% year over year, and net sales reached 48% of company net sales. But Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell 50% as the company invested in sales and marketing, leaving full-year guidance execution mixed. A CEO transition and the risk of weaker jobs data add uncertainty; recent earnings reports were positive, and the stated near-term miss risk is low.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on Modern Oral growth continuing while sales and marketing investment supports brand building and adjusted EBITDA progresses toward management’s guidance. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. Weaker employment data could also raise recession concerns for cyclical names.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis is intact, but it depends on converting rapid Modern Oral growth into stronger earnings while managing elevated execution risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profitability is stable with EBITDA guidance introduced. |
| Intact |
| EBITDA falls significantly below $70M in FY26 |
Ebitda: $20.611M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EBITDA stable near guidance (~$80M). Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202620,611,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 15% in FY26 | A primary condition in Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 | Revenue: $142.96M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026142,960,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.66 → $1.94 · observed estimates
$0.59B → $0.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.66 | $591,556,460 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.66 | $589,141,420 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.66 | $589,141,420 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.66 | $589,141,420 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.66 | $589,141,420 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.63 | $590,609,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.10 | $590,608,620 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.63 | $590,609,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.10 | $590,608,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.63 | $590,609,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.10 | $590,608,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.10 | $590,608,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.10 | $590,608,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.63 | $590,609,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.83 | $625,983,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.83 | $625,983,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.83 | $625,983,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.42 | $638,983,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.83 | $625,983,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.83 | $625,983,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.83 | $625,983,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.83 | $625,983,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.83 | $625,983,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.83 | $625,983,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.83 | $625,983,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.94 | $638,983,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.94 | $638,983,120 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.