Tapestry, Inc. (TPR)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$146.28+0.54%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $146.28. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $146 TPR trades at 22× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median, but our blended $123 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $142–$230. Note: our $123 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($142–$230). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Not investment advice.
$142.00 – $230.00 (median $170.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 55% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 12.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $5.10/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $170.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $370.99 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $384.07 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $27.38 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $22.32 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $148.84 | 23.2 | 6.42 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $118.40 | 13.9 | 9.07 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $164.22 | 19.5 | 8.43 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $156.60 | 23.2 | 6.76 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $78.59 | 2.1 | 37.69 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $426.35 | 63.1 | 6.76 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $28.65 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $138.74 | 20.5 | 6.76 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $171.97 | 23.2 | 7.42 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $225.53 | 23.2 | 9.74 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $249.76 | 19.5 | 12.81 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $181.59 | 23.2 | 7.84 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $85.41 | 2.1 | 40.96 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $494.38 | 63.1 | 7.84 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $160.87 | 20.5 | 7.84 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $297.52 | 23.2 | 12.84 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $330.30 | 19.5 | 16.95 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $186.21 | 23.2 | 8.04 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $87.58 | 2.1 | 42.00 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $506.95 | 63.1 | 8.04 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $164.96 | 20.5 | 8.04 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.