Tapestry, Inc. (TPR)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$122.14-0.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TPR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TPR — director transition
Dated 2026-04-06
Director — Matthew Madrigal: The company appointed Matthew Madrigal as a new director.
Why it matters: Strong growth at Coach is key to Tapestry's overall performance. It shows brand strength and consumer demand.
Supportive ifCoach brand revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifCoach brand revenue growth falls below 20% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to reaching the $7.75 billion target for FY 2026. If growth slows, it raises concerns about overall performance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $1.9 billion. This shows slower growth.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue was above $1.9 billion. This shows growth momentum.
Why it matters: Fewer new customers may mean trouble attracting younger buyers.
Worry ifNew customer acquisition in Q1 2027 drops below 2 million.
Less concerning ifNew customer growth in Q1 2027 is over 2 million.
Why it matters: Sustained handbag growth is key to Tapestry's overall performance and brand strength.
Supportive ifHandbag revenue growth at Coach exceeds mid-teens percentage increase.
Worry ifHandbag revenue growth at Coach falls below mid-teens percentage increase.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$145 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $332 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,588 loss on $10,000 · 25.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If consumer spending slows, it could mean a bigger slowdown for Tapestry.
Worry ifConsumer spending growth was below its average.
Less concerning ifConsumer spending growth is above its average.
Why it matters: More repurchases would show strong cash flow and management's trust in the stock.
Supportive ifShare repurchases were over $1.3 billion for FY 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases were below $1.0 billion. This suggests cash flow worries.
Why it matters: Lower guidance may show slower growth after strong results.
Worry ifManagement expects Q1 2027 revenue growth to be under 5%.
Less concerning ifManagement maintains or raises Q1 2027 revenue growth guidance to 5% or higher.
Why it matters: Getting more customers shows the brand is popular and marketing works.
Supportive ifNew customer acquisitions are over 3 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNew customer gains below 3 million mean marketing may not be strong.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to meeting Tapestry's goal of over $7.95 billion in revenue for FY 2026.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue growth exceeds 11% year over year, supporting the $7.95 billion target.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth is below 11% compared to last year. This shows possible challenges.
Why it matters: This growth would show Tapestry is running well and making money.
Supportive ifEPS growth was over 35%. This confirms strong earnings.
Worry ifEPS growth was below 30%. This shows possible profit problems.
Why it matters: Getting new customers is key for Tapestry's growth. It shows the brand is popular, especially with younger buyers.
Supportive ifTapestry added more than 3 million new customers around the world in Q3.
Worry ifNew customer acquisition falls below 3 million in Q3.
Why it matters: The dividend increase may change how Tapestry funds share buybacks.
Watch forShare buybacks stay at $1.35 billion even after the dividend increase.
Also watch forShare repurchases drop below $1 billion due to the dividend increase.
Why it matters: Plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders signal confidence in cash flow and growth. Lack of clarity may raise concerns.
Supportive ifClear announcement of the $1.5 billion return plan in Q3 earnings.
Worry ifNo mention of the shareholder return plan in Q3 earnings.
Why it matters: A steady or growing operating margin shows good cost control and strong profits.
Supportive ifOperating margin stays above 22% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating margin drops below 22% in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher revenue guidance shows trust in continued growth and market health.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 revenue guidance is now above $8.5 billion.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 revenue guidance remains at or below $8.4 billion.
Why it matters: Meeting this goal shows Tapestry values its shareholders.
Supportive ifTotal shareholder returns reach $1.6 billion in FY 2026.
Worry ifTotal shareholder returns fall below $1.6 billion in FY 2026.
Why it matters: Exceeding this revenue would confirm strong demand and growth momentum for Tapestry.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue was over $2.1 billion. This shows continued growth.
Worry ifQ4 revenue was under $2.0 billion. This suggests demand is weakening.