Tapestry, Inc. (TPR)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$134.17+7.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TPR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 0 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TPR — director transition
Dated 2026-04-06
Director — Matthew Madrigal: The company appointed Matthew Madrigal as a new director.
Why it matters: Tapestry tied its FY27 plan to wider margins. A smaller margin would put that plan at risk.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 non-GAAP operating margin rises by at least 50 basis points from the same quarter last year.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY27 non-GAAP operating margin is flat or lower year over year.
Why it matters: Tariffs cut into Q4 margin gains. A larger hit could offset better sales and lower costs.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 tariff and duty costs cut gross margin by more than 60 basis points year over year.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY27 tariff and duty costs cut gross margin by 60 basis points or less.
Why it matters: This report is the first check on the FY27 plan for mid-single-digit sales growth and wider margins.
Watch forQ1 FY27 revenue grows at least 4% year over year, and non-GAAP operating margin expands.
Also watch forQ1 FY27 revenue falls year over year, or non-GAAP operating margin contracts.
Why it matters: Kate Spade sales fell in Q4 and for FY26. Another decline would add pressure beyond Coach.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 Kate Spade revenue falls at least 5% year over year on a constant-currency basis.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY27 Kate Spade revenue is flat or grows year over year on a constant-currency basis.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$145 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $332 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,302 loss on $10,000 · 33.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Coach drove most of FY26 growth. A sharp slowdown would weaken the main growth engine.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 Coach revenue grows less than 10% year over year on a constant-currency basis.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY27 Coach revenue grows at least 10% year over year on a constant-currency basis.