Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp
Tapestry, Inc. (TPR)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$125.31+3.54%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.92 → 8.91 EPS · FY ending Jun 27, 2028 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TPR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS grows over 35% to at least $6.95 in FY 2026 | Tapestry grows revenue over $7.95 billion in FY 2026, a 14% rise. | Broken | EPS growth falls below 7.0% YoY in FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $1.66 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=6.95 USD_PER_SHARE. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 20261.66 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a consumer discretionary growth and capital-return story, with management focused on revenue growth and wider operating margins. The long-term thesis is intact, but recent company momentum has weakened and earnings quality is rated fragile.
TPR trades at a modest premium to peers, while the valuation evidence describes expectations as broadly aligned with the fundamentals. The snapshot does not point to a large expectations gap or unusually severe fragility being priced in.
In the near term, management projects fiscal 2027 revenue growth and further margin expansion after fiscal 2026 growth, and has continued its stated capital-return plans. Recent earnings beats support the setup, but momentum has fallen, and a guidance cut or weaker industry results would challenge it.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether management delivers the planned growth and margin progress without cutting guidance. Sector signals also matter: continued strength among bellwethers could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the 1 to 3 year view, the thesis remains intact, with growth and margin execution balanced against weaker momentum and fragile earnings quality. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Tapestry grows revenue over $7.95 billion in FY 2026, a 14% rise. |
| Intact |
| Revenue falls below $6.95 billion in FY 2026 |
Revenue: $1.877B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=7.95 USD_BILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 20261,876,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Return at least $1.6 billion to shareholders in FY 2026 | The company returns $1.6 billion to shareholders this year. | Intact | Shareholder returns fall below $1.05 billion year-to-date in FY 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.88 → $8.91 · observed estimates
$8.98B → $8.99B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | $8.88 | $8,978,489,677 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.88 | $8,978,489,677 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.88 | $8,978,489,677 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.88 | $8,978,489,677 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.88 | $8,978,489,677 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.88 | $8,978,489,677 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.89 | $8,993,572,699 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.89 | $8,993,572,699 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.89 | $8,993,572,699 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.89 | $8,993,572,699 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.89 | $8,993,572,699 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.89 | $8,993,570,460 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.89 | $8,993,570,460 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.89 | $8,993,570,460 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.89 | $8,993,570,460 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.89 | $8,993,570,460 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.89 | $8,993,570,460 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.89 | $8,993,570,460 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.92 | $9,022,015,781 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.92 | $9,022,015,781 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.92 | $9,022,015,781 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.92 | $9,022,015,781 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.92 | $9,022,015,781 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.92 | $9,022,015,781 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.92 | $9,022,015,781 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.92 | $9,022,015,781 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.92 | $9,022,015,781 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.92 | $9,022,015,781 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.92 | $9,022,015,781 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.91 | $9,011,403,793 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.91 | $9,011,403,793 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.91 | $9,011,403,793 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.91 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.92 | $9,011,428,188 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.93 | $9,012,607,354 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.93 | $9,012,607,354 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.93 | $9,012,607,354 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.90 | $8,989,047,760 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.91 | $8,989,459,525 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.91 | $8,989,459,525 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.91 | $8,989,459,525 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.91 | $8,989,459,525 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.91 | $8,989,459,525 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.91 | $8,989,459,525 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.91 | $8,990,368,299 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.91 | $8,990,368,299 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.91 | $8,988,088,475 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.91 | $8,988,073,199 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.91 | $8,988,073,199 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.91 | $8,988,073,199 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.91 | $8,988,073,199 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.91 | $8,988,073,199 | 12 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.