Tapestry, Inc. (TPR)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$122.14-0.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS grows over 35% to at least $6.95 in FY 2026: FY2026 EPS $7.85 vs 6.95 target.
Tapestry grows revenue over $7.95 billion in FY 2026, a 14% rise. EPS is set to increase over 35% to about $6.95. The company returns $1.6 billion to shareholders this year. Recent quarters beat estimates with strong sales and profit growth.
EPS growth lags behind targets, showing only 30% progress. Luxury sector headwinds could slow sales growth below 7.5%. Share buybacks may slow, reducing shareholder returns.
The price is about 18% above our fair value near $123, reflecting roughly 7.5% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 28% below the Street median, indicating the market may be optimistic compared to our view.
Breaks if: EPS growth falls below 7.0% YoY in FY 2026
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $6.95 billion in FY 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on durable revenue growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state indicates a cautious optimism, as management is on track with its priorities but faces mixed execution in customer engagement.
The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly below average compared to peers. The company's recent performance has improved, but there is still a sense of fragility due to weak execution quality.
Management's focus on revenue growth and margin expansion is expected to continue, supported by recent financial results. However, there is a moderate risk of missing future guidance, especially given the recent history of misses in the industry.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate potential inflationary pressures. Additionally, positive momentum from sector peers could provide a favorable backdrop for TPR's performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. The company is driving revenue growth and expanding operating margins. It also raised its quarterly dividend by 16%. This return of capital to shareholders reinforces the positive outlook. There are no new threats noted at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Tapestry aims to achieve revenue growth of approximately 14% in FY 2026, exceeding previous guidance.
Breaks if: Shareholder returns fall below $1.05 billion year-to-date in FY 2026
In the next 1 to 3 years, TPR's trajectory will depend on execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.