Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$38.78-0.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — annual revenue growth rate: Q2 FY2026 YoY revenue -1.0% vs 2% target.
Tootsie Roll grows revenue about 2% yearly and beats earnings estimates. The company manages moderate profit margins despite cost pressures. It has a stable market position in confectionery with consistent cash flow.
Higher input costs hurt profit margins and gross profit fell from $79.4M to $51.3M recently. Revenue growth is slow and cost pressures may persist. The valuation is high compared to peers, risking multiple contraction.
The price is about 24% above our fair value near $31. Analysts expect roughly 5% revenue growth. Our view sees slower growth and margin pressure, suggesting some optimism is priced in.
Breaks if: EPS guidance midpoint falls below $0.49
Breaks if: gross profit falls below $51M persistently
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on maintaining revenue growth and managing costs. The current thesis state is weakened due to recent performance and market conditions.
The market appears to be pricing in a stretched valuation, reflecting a durable premium compared to peers. There is a notable expectations gap, suggesting that investors may be anticipating better execution than has been delivered recently.
Fundamentals are likely to show mixed results as management works to manage higher input costs and sustain revenue growth despite pricing resistance. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with some stability in revenue but challenges in gross margins.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to effectively manage input costs and sustain revenue growth. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and performance of sector peers will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The downgrade from Seeking Alpha suggests potential revenue growth challenges. Recent financial performance fell from the robust 91st to the 45th percentile of its sector. This change indicates a decline in the reasons to own the company.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on mitigating the adverse effects of higher input costs, particularly cocoa and chocolate, on gross profit margins.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 2% next year
Breaks if: PE contracts toward peer median without growth improvement
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TR's performance will depend on its execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.