NYSEConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS meets or exceeds guidance | A primary condition in Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.49. | Broken | EPS guidance midpoint falls below $0.49 | Diluted EPS: $0.18 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.49. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20260.18 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Comparable estimate history is unavailable.
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Compare required revenue and earningsMonthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a consumer-staples business with a durable-premium valuation, but recent execution has been mixed rather than clearly strong. The thesis is in a watch state: recent results have trailed the industry cohort, though the evidence does not show a fresh break.
The valuation is stretched and about twice the peer level in the supplied comparison, with a durable premium reflected in expectations. The model’s confidence is low, and its expectations-gap measure is 0.19, so the evidence on what the market assumes is limited.
Near term, sales may remain pressured: nine-month net sales were slightly lower year over year, and management said promotions reduced reported sales while cocoa, packaging, labor, and freight costs hurt margins. Management remains focused on costs, plant efficiency, and brand support, but the supplied figures show limited evidence of improvement so far; a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on whether cost control, plant investment, and brand support translate into stronger results. Continued earnings strength from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker jobs data could increase recession concerns for cyclical businesses. The evidence on the acquisition’s likely contribution is thin.
The multi-year view is mixed: sector momentum and brand support are positives, but execution and cost pressures have yet to show clear improvement, while the valuation is stretched versus peers. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is gross profit stabilizes near $51M or better. |
| Broken |
| gross profit falls below $51M persistently |
Gross profit: $52.63M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: gross profit stabilizes near $51M or better. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202652,630,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
annual revenue growth rate | A primary condition in Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 2% next year | Revenue growth: -0.56% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026-0.560327 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
valuation relative to peers | A supporting condition in Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE remains justified by growth and margin. | Under Pressure | PE contracts toward peer median without growth improvement | P/E (TTM): 27.19x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202627.1931 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.