Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$38.78-0.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
Why it matters: Doing better than expected shows strong performance and helps gain investor trust.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings are better than what analysts thought.
Worry ifQ3 earnings fall short of analyst expectations.
Why it matters: Lower cocoa prices can help profit margins and earnings.
Supportive ifCocoa prices are below historical levels. This helps gross profit margins.
Worry ifCocoa prices rise again, increasing input costs and hurting margins.
Why it matters: Changes in tariffs could affect ingredient costs and profit margins.
Watch forTariffs on cocoa are still gone. This leads to lower ingredient costs.
Also watch forNew tariffs are back, raising ingredient costs again.
Why it matters: Higher trade promotions could boost sales but may reduce reported revenue.
Watch forTrade promotions lead to Q3 sales growth above $151.9 million.
Also watch forTrade promotions do not boost sales, leading to Q3 sales below $151.9 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$101 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $270 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,003 loss on $10,000 · 20.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher trade promotions could signal a struggle to maintain sales without discounts.
Watch forTrade promotions rise a lot in Q3 2026. This leads to more sales.
Also watch forTrade promotions decrease in Q3 2026, but sales remain stable.
Why it matters: Increased marketing expenses can affect net earnings. This will show how well they manage costs.
Worry ifQ3 net earnings decline year over year by more than 10%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net earnings increase or decline less than 5%.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue growth is important. It helps deal with pricing issues and improves margins.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 2% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 1% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: A lower tax rate can boost net earnings and overall profits.
Supportive ifEffective tax rate reported below 25% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifEffective tax rate remains at or above 25% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to offsetting input cost pressures. It shows market demand strength.
Watch forQuarterly revenue grows more than 3% from last year. This shows pricing issues are easing.
Also watch forQuarterly revenue growth is under 1%. This shows pricing issues are still a problem.
Why it matters: Higher net earnings would show better cost control and sales results.
Supportive ifQ3 net earnings exceed $13.3 million, showing recovery from Q2.
Worry ifIf Q3 net earnings are below $13.3 million, it shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Higher investment income can offset some pressure from input costs and taxes.
Supportive ifInvestment income goes up compared to Q1 2026 levels.
Worry ifInvestment income goes down or stays the same compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key insights into sales and profit trends.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth higher than 5% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth lower than 0% year over year.
Why it matters: If sales improve in Q3, it shows recovery from Q2's seasonal issues.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales exceed $151.9 million, showing growth from Q2.
Worry ifIf Q3 net sales are below $151.9 million, it shows ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: If sales stay the same or drop, it shows pricing problems.
Worry ifQ3 net sales report shows a decrease year over year worse than -1%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales report shows an increase year over year.
Why it matters: Lower input costs help make more money and improve profits.
Supportive ifManagement confirms cocoa and chocolate costs decrease in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifCocoa and chocolate costs remain at or above current levels.
Why it matters: This acquisition could enhance Tootsie Roll's market presence in Mexico and boost sales.
Supportive ifThe Klass Company acquisition will boost sales growth in the next quarters.
Worry ifNo clear sales growth or market share gain from the buy.
Why it matters: Good trade promotions can boost sales even with pricing issues.
Watch forTrade promotions lead to a measurable increase in sales in the next quarter.
Also watch forTrade promotions fail to boost sales or result in further declines.