TripAdvisor (TRIP)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.38-27.65%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRIP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TRIP — CFO transition
Dated 2026-11-05
CEO — Matt Goldberg: The CEO is departing in a negotiated transition, and the CFO is also resigning, representing a significant loss of senior leadership.
Why it matters: Hotels and Other revenue fell 21% in Q2. Another steep drop would add pressure as Tripadvisor shifts toward Experiences.
Worry ifQ3 Hotels and Other revenue falls more than 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Hotels and Other revenue falls less than 10% year over year or grows.
Why it matters: Bookings grew 5% in Q2, while revenue grew 3%. Faster booking growth could support the Experiences growth plan.
Supportive ifIn the Q3 report, Experiences bookings grow more than 5% year over year and revenue growth is at least 3%.
Worry ifExperiences bookings grow 5% or less, or Experiences revenue falls year over year.
Why it matters: The $700 million sale could free up cash for debt paydown, share repurchases, or Experiences investments. A delay would leave the sale unfinished.
Supportive ifTripadvisor and American Express announce the sale closed by December 31, 2026. The price stays near $700 million.
Worry ifThe sale does not close by December 31, 2026, or the parties announce a material price cut or failed approval.
Why it matters: Tripadvisor set a target of $85 million in annual savings by 2027. Clear savings could ease pressure from falling revenue.
Supportive ifManagement says the $85 million target remains on track. It reports measurable savings toward the target in the next results.
Worry ifManagement cuts or delays the $85 million target. Or it reports no clear savings progress by year-end 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$215 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $541 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,344 loss on $10,000 · 53.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.