Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.32+0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
TRN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition." Additionally, Trinity posted its presentation for investors and interested parties to its website to accompany the conference call; a copy of these materials is furnished as Exhibit 99.3 and incorporated herein by reference. Forward-Looking Statements Some statements in this release, which are not historical facts, are “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements incl…
Why it matters: Trinity's growth strategy relies on M&A. Progress here could boost future earnings.
Supportive ifA press release says a deal is done. This helps growth.
Worry ifNo news or delays in M&A activities. This shows slow growth.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising EPS guidance shows strong performance. It also reflects good market conditions.
Supportive ifTrinity confirms or raises its EPS guidance above $2.40 for the full year.
Worry ifEPS guidance is lowered below $2.20 for the full year.
Why it matters: A $130 million gain would confirm strong capital allocation and support EPS guidance.
Supportive ifA press release says there is a non-cash gain of about $130 million in Q2.
Worry ifNo gain reported or a gain much lower than $130 million.
Why it matters: A drop in the Future Lease Rate Differential may show weaker lease pricing power.
Worry ifFLRD below 2% at the end of Q3.
Less concerning ifFLRD remains above 2% at the end of Q3.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $353 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,682 loss on $10,000 · 26.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable or rising dividends show strong finances. They also show care for shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of an increase in the dividend per share beyond the current $0.31.
Worry ifA dividend cut or freeze is announced. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: High order levels indicate strong demand and could lead to revenue growth.
Supportive ifNew railcar orders exceed 2,000 units in Q3.
Worry ifNew railcar orders fall below 1,500 units in Q3.
Why it matters: Trinity operates in a maturing sector. Changes in sector growth can impact its performance.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up above 8%. This may mean a recovery.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows down. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: A drop in deliveries could signal weakening demand in the railcar market. This would impact revenue and margins.
Worry ifIf Q3 railcar deliveries are below 1,500 units, demand is low.
Less concerning ifDeliveries over 1,500 units show that demand is steady.
Why it matters: A drop in EPS could raise worries about profit and efficiency.
Worry ifQuarterly EPS was below $0.32.
Less concerning ifEPS remains at or above $0.32 for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better margins would mean that operational issues are being fixed. This can help investor confidence.
Supportive ifRail Products Group operating margin improves to above 5% in Q3.
Worry ifRail Products Group operating margin remains below 5% in Q3.
Why it matters: EPS guidance shows management's confidence in future earnings. A change could mean different performance.
Watch forManagement maintains full-year EPS guidance of $2.20 to $2.40 in Q3.
Also watch forManagement revises EPS guidance down from $2.20 to $2.40.
Why it matters: Hitting this delivery target would show strong demand. It also shows good efficiency in the Rail Products Group.
Supportive ifTrinity delivers at least 6,000 railcars in Q2 2026.
Worry ifTrinity delivers fewer than 5,000 railcars in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Lower usage shows less demand for leasing. This affects cash flow and earnings.
Worry ifLease fleet utilization drops below 95%.
Less concerning ifLease fleet usage stays above 95%.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows trust in earnings and operations.
Supportive ifManagement maintains EPS guidance at $2.20 to $2.40.
Worry ifManagement cuts EPS guidance to under $2.20.
Why it matters: A decline in FLRD indicates weakening lease rates, which could hurt revenue growth.
Worry ifFLRD falls below 2%.
Less concerning ifFLRD stays above 2%.