Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.32+0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRN
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 TRN trades at 11× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $39 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ddm gordon | 12M | $21.66 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $28.93 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $154.59 | 15.4 | 9.94 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $56.69 | 21.4 | 2.65 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $25.95 |
| 1.0 |
| 25.03 |
| TTM |
| high |
| PEG | 12M | $60.20 | 22.7 | 2.65 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $19.87 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $56.48 | 21.4 | 2.64 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $86.23 | 21.4 | 4.03 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $26.06 | 1.0 | 25.13 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $91.55 | 22.7 | 4.03 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $114.03 | 21.4 | 5.33 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $23.07 | 1.0 | 22.25 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $121.08 | 22.7 | 5.33 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |