INTERACTIVE STRENGTH INC (TRNR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.19-4.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRNR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -70.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 57.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 128.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers
TRNR — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-10-13
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth under “Wattbike Refinancing” in
Why it matters: TRNR says it expects positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4 after the STEPR deal closes. A result below zero would miss that goal.
Supportive ifTRNR reports adjusted EBITDA above $0 for Q4 2026 and says the STEPR deal closed.
Worry ifTRNR reports adjusted EBITDA at or below $0 for Q4 2026, or says the deal did not close in time.
Why it matters: TRNR’s $50 million-plus 2026 revenue guide includes STEPR. The deal still needs to close and pass an audit review.
Supportive ifTRNR files a closing notice by December 31, 2026, after the STEPR audit and other closing steps are complete.
Worry ifTRNR reports the deal is delayed, ended, or cannot meet a closing condition by December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: The revenue guide depends on the STEPR deal and the brands’ sales. The latest stated guide is above $50 million.
Supportive ifTRNR reports 2026 pro forma revenue above $50 million, with STEPR included in the results.
Worry ifTRNR reports 2026 pro forma revenue at or below $50 million, or cuts the guide below that level.
Why it matters: Recent filings list debt exchanges, share sales, and a new financial obligation. More such actions could add funding or share risks.
Worry ifA new filing reports another share sale, debt swap, or added debt before year-end 2026.
Less concerning ifTRNR reports no new share sale, debt swap, or added debt through December 31, 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$320 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,450 loss on $10,000 · 14.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,942 loss on $10,000 · 99.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.