INTERACTIVE STRENGTH INC (TRNR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.900.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRNR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -70.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 57.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 128.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TRNR — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-08-14
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On August 10 and August 12, 2026, Interactive Strength Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Company") entered into Exchange Agreements (collectively, the "Exchange Agreements") with certain holders of the Company's Series A Convertible Preferred Stock, par value $0.0001 per share (“Series A Preferred”) or promissory notes (each, a "Holder" and collectively, the "Holders"), pursuant to which the Holders exchanged (i) Series A Preferred shares or (ii) port…
Why it matters: Making a profit is important for TRNR's finances and for investor trust.
Supportive ifTRNR reports Adjusted EBITDA profit in Q4 2026 after buying STEPR.
Worry ifTRNR does not reach Adjusted EBITDA profit in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: The reverse split aims to boost share price and regain Nasdaq compliance. Its effectiveness is crucial.
Watch forTRNR's share price stabilizes above $1.00 after the reverse split on June 30, 2026.
Also watch forShare price falls below $1.00 after the reverse split.
Why it matters: Successful integration could lead to revenue and cost synergies across TRNR's brands.
Supportive ifTRNR shares steps and benefits from STEPR integration within six months after closing.
Worry ifTRNR may have problems or delays that slow down expected benefits.
Why it matters: Exceeding this revenue shows strong growth momentum and supports the raised guidance.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue is above $6.6 million. This shows growth is continuing.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue is below $6.6 million. This shows growth is slowing.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$353 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,425 loss on $10,000 · 14.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,899 loss on $10,000 · 99.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The reverse split aims to regain compliance with Nasdaq. Its effect on share price is crucial.
Watch forShare price stays the same or goes up after the reverse split. This shows investor trust.
Also watch forShare price drops a lot after the reverse split. This shows negative feelings.
Why it matters: Higher gross profit means better revenue and cost control. This helps overall growth.
Supportive ifGross profit remains positive in the next quarter, exceeding $1M.
Worry ifGross profit turns negative again in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Gross profit trends will show if TRNR is managing costs and improving revenue.
Supportive ifGross profit rises from $1.61 million in Q1 2026. This shows better cost management.
Worry ifIf gross profit falls or stays negative, it shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Closing the STEPR deal is key for TRNR's growth and revenue boost. It will help TRNR reach over $50 million in pro forma revenue.
Supportive ifThe deal will close as planned in Q4 2026. This confirms TRNR's operations will include STEPR.
Worry ifThe acquisition does not close by the end of Q4 2026 due to unmet conditions.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows strong growth. It also shows STEPR is integrating well.
Supportive ifTRNR expects 2026 revenue to be over $50 million after the STEPR deal closes.
Worry ifIf 2026 revenue is below $50 million, it shows there are integration problems.
Why it matters: Better metrics mean TRNR is controlling costs. This helps profits after the acquisition.
Supportive ifOperating income and gross profit will be much better in Q4 2026 than in Q2 2026.
Worry ifIf operating income and gross profit stay negative or get worse in Q4 2026.