Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
T. Rowe Price (TROW)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$108.71-3.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.25 → 10.01 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TROW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations improves to at least $824.3 million next quarter | Cash from operations improved sharply to $824M, showing strong cash flow. | Intact | cash from operations falls below $0 next quarter | Cash from operations: $543.3M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $824.3 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 2026543,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a mature asset manager with a recovery-driven long-term thesis, not a high-growth story. Recent results have improved the signal from mildly favorable to favorable, and the thesis has shifted from fragile to robust, but its current state remains watch.
TROW is described as cheap versus peers, with a small negative expectations gap, meaning market expectations are slightly below the model’s view. The priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low, though confidence in the valuation model is medium.
Near term, recent earnings beats have lifted company momentum, and performance has returned to the top half of its industry. But Q3 AUM fell from the prior quarter and net client outflows continued, while adjusted expenses rose year over year. The recurring growth and cost priorities show limited delivery so far, and a guidance cut remains a meaningful risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether TROW can turn its focus on ETFs, alternatives, and partnerships into stronger AUM and flows while managing expense growth. Guidance cuts or lower interest rates would weigh on the setup, while continued earnings strength among financial-sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For a 1 to 3 year view, recent earnings support a better recovery case, but the evidence on flows, costs, and execution remains mixed. The thesis hinges on measurable progress in those areas. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company maintains a stable dividend, increasing payout from $1.27 to $1.30 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $1.27 next quarter |
Dividend per share: $1.30 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.30 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 20261.3 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income growth to at least $680.5 million next quarter | Rowe Price grows operating income strongly, from $471M to $680.5M in Q1 2026. | Under Pressure | operating income falls below $471 million next quarter | Operating income: $769.8M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $680.5 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 2026769,800,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 4% annually | A primary condition in T. Rowe Price's published investment case. The stated target is >= 3.8% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3.8% next year | Revenue growth: 5.88% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 3.8% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 29, 20265.883285 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.41 → $10.01 · observed estimates
$8.04B → $7.83B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.41 | $8,036,353,216 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.38 | $8,107,455,120 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.38 | $8,107,455,120 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.38 | $8,107,455,120 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.41 | $8,036,353,216 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.41 | $8,036,353,216 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.41 | $8,036,353,216 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.35 | $8,083,003,140 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.38 | $8,018,014,230 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.29 | $8,038,330,440 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.31 | $8,010,230,043 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.29 | $8,038,330,440 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.31 | $8,010,230,043 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.25 | $7,949,490,030 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.31 | $8,010,230,043 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.26 | $7,949,490,030 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.26 | $7,949,490,030 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.31 | $8,010,230,043 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.28 | $7,949,490,030 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.31 | $8,010,230,043 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.31 | $8,010,230,043 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.31 | $8,010,230,043 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.31 | $8,010,230,043 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.31 | $8,010,230,043 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.31 | $8,010,230,043 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.22 | $7,964,753,727 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.22 | $7,964,753,727 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.22 | $7,964,753,727 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.22 | $7,964,753,727 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.22 | $7,964,753,727 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.22 | $7,964,753,727 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.22 | $7,964,753,727 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.22 | $7,964,753,727 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.22 | $7,964,753,727 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.22 | $7,964,753,727 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.22 | $7,964,753,727 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.22 | $7,964,753,727 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.24 | $7,964,447,757 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.24 | $7,947,481,459 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.24 | $7,947,481,459 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.24 | $7,947,481,459 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.24 | $7,947,481,459 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.24 | $7,947,481,459 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.24 | $7,947,481,459 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.24 | $7,947,481,459 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.24 | $7,947,481,459 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.25 | $7,956,183,570 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.25 | $7,956,183,570 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.25 | $7,956,183,570 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.21 | $7,942,735,420 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.16 | $7,913,511,941 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.16 | $7,913,511,941 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.16 | $7,913,511,941 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.19 | $7,913,511,941 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.19 | $7,913,511,941 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.08 | $7,869,152,861 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.07 | $7,861,566,461 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.07 | $7,861,566,461 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.06 | $7,858,869,657 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.06 | $7,858,869,657 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.05 | $7,855,352,493 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.05 | $7,855,352,493 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.05 | $7,855,352,493 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.05 | $7,855,352,493 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.05 | $7,855,352,493 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.06 | $7,860,704,319 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.06 | $7,860,704,319 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.06 | $7,860,704,319 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.06 | $7,860,704,319 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.06 | $7,860,704,319 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.06 | $7,860,704,319 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.06 | $7,860,704,319 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.02 | $7,860,700,851 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.99 | $7,841,394,879 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.99 | $7,841,394,879 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.99 | $7,841,394,879 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.01 | $7,830,436,787 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.01 | $7,830,436,787 | 8 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 9 recorded
1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.