TriMas Corp. (TRS)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.48+1.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
TRS — officer change
Dated 2026-03-12
Named Executive Officer — Jill S. Stress: Jill S. Stress is departing from the Company effective March 27, 2026.
Why it matters: This consolidation is expected to yield additional cost savings. It will show how well TriMas is managing its operations.
Supportive ifThe Atkins facility changes will be done by mid-2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe consolidation will be delayed past mid-2026.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost management. This is important for making more money.
Supportive ifThe operating profit margin improves by at least 300 basis points from last year.
Worry ifThe operating profit margin does not improve or goes down.
Why it matters: Positive Free Cash Flow shows financial health. It means the company can fund growth.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow reported as positive for Q3 2026.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow remains negative for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can boost growth and market position. Announcements show active use of capital.
Supportive ifLook for news about an acquisition that matches the main business areas.
Worry ifNo announcements of acquisitions by the end of the year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $310 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,224 loss on $10,000 · 22.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New acquisitions could help TriMas grow. This is important after selling Aerospace.
Supportive ifAt least one acquisition will be announced in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo news about acquisitions or investments in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings per share in this range indicates strong growth and financial health. It reflects the success of recent initiatives.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted diluted EPS is between $1.50 and $1.70.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted diluted EPS is below $1.50.
Why it matters: Ongoing buybacks show good use of money. They also return value to shareholders.
Supportive ifTriMas announces more share buybacks of at least $20 million in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Sales growth below 3% would signal trouble in meeting the company's growth target for 2026.
Worry ifQ3 sales grew less than 3% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 sales growth meets or exceeds 3% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Going over this amount shows a strong commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases exceed $76.5 million by the end of Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall short of $76.5 million.
Why it matters: Completing the acquisition is vital for TriMas's growth strategy. It can enhance their market position.
Supportive ifLook for the announcement of when the acquisition will close.
Worry ifNo news about the acquisition closing before the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Improving this margin shows that cost-cutting efforts are working.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating profit margin rises by at least 300 basis points in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted operating profit margin does not rise or falls.
Why it matters: An EPS below this level would indicate challenges in maintaining earnings growth.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted diluted EPS is less than $1.60.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted diluted EPS meets or exceeds $1.60.