Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Trupanion (TRUP)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.67+8.19%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.70 → 0.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TRUP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net income improvement and cost control | Net income improved from $1.7M to $4.9M in recent quarters. | Broken | Net income falls below $3M in FY26 | Net income: $6.831M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $5M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20266,831,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business with a profitability-improvement thesis, not a proven durable compounder: earnings quality is marked loss-making, and risk is elevated. Management has made progress on subscription growth and operating income, but the thesis state is watch and company quality recently declined.
TRUP is valued at a 2.48-times premium versus peers, and the valuation assessment is expensive. The evidence flags a durable premium, but the expectations gap is 0.48 and model confidence is low, so the market’s precise assumptions are uncertain; fragility is rated low because expensive valuation is the only identified pressure.
Near term, subscription revenue and enrolled pets have grown, while operating income improved; net income was lower over the same year-over-year comparison. The latest reported quarter included an earnings beat and a repurchase announcement, after a prior-quarter miss, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort and the company is still marked loss-making.
Over the next few quarters, continued subscription growth and better profitability would support the multi-year thesis, while a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. Rate changes and earnings trends at sector bellwethers are also cited as swing factors, though the evidence for their effect on TRUP is limited.
The 1-to-3-year view is a watch-stage growth and profitability story with real operating progress, but elevated risk, mixed recent results, and an expensive peer valuation. The thesis hinges on sustained subscription growth and more consistent profitability. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Trupanion's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY revenue growth. |
| Intact |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 |
Revenue growth: 11.14% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202611.137384 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Valuation premium justified by growth and profitability | A supporting condition in Trupanion's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain premium valuation with justified growth. | Intact | PE falls below 15x without earnings decline | P/E (TTM): 18.30x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202618.2989 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.31 → $0.70 · observed estimates
$1.72B → $1.72B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.31 | $1,715,310,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.31 | $1,715,310,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.31 | $1,715,310,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.31 | $1,715,310,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.31 | $1,715,310,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.69 | $1,715,314,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.31 | $1,715,310,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.31 | $1,715,310,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.69 | $1,715,314,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.31 | $1,715,310,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.31 | $1,715,310,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.69 | $1,715,314,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.31 | $1,715,310,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.31 | $1,719,670,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.69 | $1,718,434,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.31 | $1,718,432,200 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.69 | $1,718,434,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.69 | $1,718,434,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.69 | $1,718,434,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.69 | $1,718,434,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.69 | $1,718,434,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.69 | $1,718,434,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.69 | $1,718,434,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.69 | $1,718,434,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.69 | $1,718,434,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.68 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.69 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.70 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.70 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.70 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.70 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.70 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.70 | $1,727,458,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.69 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.69 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.69 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.69 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.69 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.70 | $1,725,658,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.70 | $1,724,620,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.70 | $1,724,620,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.70 | $1,724,620,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.70 | $1,724,620,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.70 | $1,724,620,000 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.