Trupanion (TRUP)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.67+8.19%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRUP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 79.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 67.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
TRUP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, the Company issued a press release regarding the Company's financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Subscription revenue grew 14% in Q2 and 16% in Q1. Growth above 14% would keep pace with the recent trend; slower growth would mark a further slowdown.
Watch forQ3 subscription revenue grows more than 14% year over year.
Also watch forQ3 subscription revenue grows less than 14% year over year.
Why it matters: Subscription pets grew 5% in Q2, while total enrolled pets fell 2%. Faster subscription growth would show the core business is still adding pets.
Supportive ifIn the Q3 report, subscription enrolled pets grow more than 5% year over year.
Worry ifIn the Q3 report, subscription enrolled pets grow less than 5% year over year or fall.
Why it matters: Q2 operating income rose from $2.3 million to $6.4 million year over year. Net income fell from $9.4 million to $6.8 million. The next report tests whether better operations lift earnings.
Watch forQ3 operating income is above the year-earlier result, and net income is at least $9.4 million.
Also watch forQ3 operating income is below the year-earlier result, or net income is less than $6.8 million.
Why it matters: The input reports 98.37% average monthly retention for the first half of 2026. A similar rate would show that strong retention continues as the company grows.
Supportive ifThe Q3 report shows average monthly retention at or above 98.37%.
Worry ifThe Q3 report shows average monthly retention below 98.37%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$190 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $499 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,949 loss on $10,000 · 49.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The board approved repurchases of up to $100 million, but set no deadline. A filing that reports purchases would show the company has begun using the program.
Supportive ifA company filing says shares were repurchased under the program. It states the amount and share count.
Worry ifThe next quarterly filing says no shares were repurchased under the program.