Trupanion (TRUP)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$27.80-3.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRUP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 32.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TRUP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, the Company issued a press release regarding the Company's financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback show that management believes in the company's value. They also trust future cash flow.
Watch forManagement says they finished a big part of the $100 million share repurchase program.
Also watch forThere are no updates about share repurchases happening in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A larger decline in enrolled pets could indicate issues with customer retention or acquisition. This would raise concerns about future growth.
Worry ifTotal enrolled pets decreases year over year by more than 2%.
Less concerning ifTotal enrolled pets stays the same or goes up each year.
Why it matters: Growth in enrolled pets is crucial for future revenue. A drop below 5% raises concerns.
Worry ifThe growth of pets enrolled in subscriptions is below 5% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifSubscription enrolled pets growth reported at or above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may show profit problems. This can hurt investor trust and future investments.
Worry ifNet income remains above $6 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNet income falls below $6 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income means Trupanion is managing costs well. This is important for long-term growth.
Supportive ifOperating income is over $5 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income is under $4 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Starting share buybacks shows management believes in the company's value. It may help the share price.
Supportive ifThe company announces the start of its share repurchase program within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share buybacks are announced or started in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A steady or rising net income shows better profits. It shows management cares about growth.
Supportive ifNet income in Q3 is at least $6.8 million, stabilizing or improving from Q2.
Worry ifNet income drops below $6.8 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Operating income shows how well the company controls costs and grows profits. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating income improves year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifOperating income declines or grows by less than 5%.
Why it matters: Net income trends show how much money the company makes. A drop may worry about efficiency.
Worry ifNet income decreases by more than 10% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet income increases or stays stable year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Growing subscription revenue is key for Trupanion's long-term success. A strong Q3 would confirm this trend.
Supportive ifSubscription business revenue increases by more than 14% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifSubscription business revenue growth is less than 10% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: More enrolled pets is key for making money. A good trend helps management's plan.
Supportive ifTotal enrolled pets increases by more than 5% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifTotal enrolled pets decreases or grows less than 2% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Buying back shares shows management believes in the business. It may also help share price.
Supportive ifTrupanion announces completion of at least $25 million in share repurchases by the end of Q3.
Worry ifNo significant share repurchases are reported by the end of Q3.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $459 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,251 loss on $10,000 · 52.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.