Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. (TRVI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.81-8.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TRVI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage cash runway with existing cash and offering proceeds | It manages cash runway with recent offering proceeds. | Intact | Cash runway falls below 12 months before next funding event | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-development company, not a profitable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: management has advanced key trial and regulatory plans, while recent financial performance remains weak and confidence in the overall read is low.
The evidence does not provide a valuation level or clear market expectations, so whether TRVI is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be judged. No pricing fragility signals are flagged, but that does not resolve the uncertainty around its clinical prospects or losses.
Near term, the company remains loss-making, and recent results include two earnings misses followed by an in-line report. Management has started the OCEAN-1 Phase 3 trial and plans OCEAN-2, while its cash position is reported to support development into 2030. Trial progress is meaningful, but future results and clinical execution remain uncertain.
The multi-year thesis hinges on progress in the Phase 3 trials and whether later results support the chronic-cough program. In the near term, guidance cuts would be a negative signal; stronger Healthcare-sector results could provide a more supportive backdrop, while weakening employment data could heighten recession concerns.
Over the next one to three years, TRVI has a funded but high-risk clinical-development story, with execution progress offset by losses and weak recent performance. The evidence supports watching trial and guidance developments, while leaving the valuation picture unclear. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Trevi Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows from -0.47 in 2026 to better levels by 2027. |
| Intact |
| EPS loss worsens beyond -0.56 in 2027 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows from -0.47 in 2026 to better levels by 2027. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-0.11 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain FDA alignment on IPF-related chronic cough development plan | Trevi plans two pivotal Phase 3 trials for IPF-related chronic cough. | Intact | Loss of FDA alignment or negative regulatory feedback by end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Conduct two pivotal Phase 3 trials for IPF-related chronic cough | Trevi plans two pivotal Phase 3 trials for IPF-related chronic cough. | Intact | Failure to initiate or significant delays in Phase 3 trials by end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.56 → $-0.61 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.56 | $0 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.56 | $0 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.56 | $0 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.56 | $0 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.56 | $0 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.59 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.56 | $0 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.56 | $0 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.59 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.56 | $0 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.56 | $0 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.56 | $0 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.59 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.56 | $0 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.59 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.56 | $0 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.59 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.57 | $0 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.59 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.59 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.59 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.59 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.59 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.59 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.59 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.61 | $3,466,667 | 8 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.