Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. (TRVI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.26+1.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRVI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TRVI — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
of this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: If the healthcare sector grows again, it could help Trevi's performance.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth speeds up to 10% or more.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down below current levels.
Why it matters: The results will show progress in treating chronic cough. This is important for Trevi.
Watch forTopline results from the LAKE trial are reported in the second half of 2027.
Also watch forThe LAKE trial results are delayed. They may also show no effectiveness.
Why it matters: Starting these trials is key for Trevi's development plans and FDA alignment. It shows progress in treating a serious condition.
Supportive ifThe company announces the start of the first Phase 3 trial in IPF-related chronic cough.
Worry ifThe company delays the initiation of the Phase 3 trials beyond the second quarter of 2026.
Why it matters: A new officer can change company strategy and direction. Investors will want to see how this affects operations.
Watch forA press release says a new officer was appointed. It also shares their main goals.
Also watch forThere is no news about a new officer. There is still uncertainty about leadership.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$186 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $539 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,950 loss on $10,000 · 29.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in the incentive plan can change how management feels and the company’s path.
Watch forNew stock incentive plan details were announced. They match shareholder interests.
Also watch forA stock incentive plan was announced. Investors view it negatively.
Why it matters: These results are key for Trevi's future and the FDA approval of Haduvio.
Supportive ifThe first Phase 3 trial shows a clear drop in cough frequency.
Worry ifThe trial results do not show a clear drop in cough frequency.
Why it matters: Topline results will show if Haduvio is effective for refractory chronic cough. This could impact future funding and partnerships.
Supportive ifTopline results from the Phase 2b trial expected in the second half of 2027.
Worry ifResults from the Phase 2b trial show no significant improvement in cough frequency.
Why it matters: This trial is key for adding treatment options and meeting patient needs.
Supportive ifThe company announces the initiation of the Phase 2b trial in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifThe company delays the initiation of the Phase 2b trial beyond the second half of 2026.
Why it matters: FDA feedback will determine if Trevi can proceed with the Phase 2b trial for non-IPF ILD. This is important for the pipeline.
Supportive ifPositive FDA feedback allowing initiation of the Phase 2b trial for non-IPF ILD in H2 2026.
Worry ifNegative FDA feedback delaying the initiation of the Phase 2b trial for non-IPF ILD.
Why it matters: Starting this trial shows progress in treating IPF-related chronic cough. It is key for future growth.
Supportive ifThe Phase 3 OCEAN-2 trial is initiated in Q3 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe OCEAN-2 trial is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Working with the FDA is key for the non-IPF ILD-related chronic cough trial.
Supportive ifThe FDA meeting confirms the plan for the non-IPF ILD-related chronic cough trial.
Worry ifThe FDA meeting leads to big changes in the development plan.
Why it matters: Updates on cash runway will show financial health and ability to fund trials.
Supportive ifManagement says cash runway goes into 2030 after the stock offering.
Worry ifManagement says cash runway is shorter than expected. This raises funding concerns.
Why it matters: This analysis will affect how valid the trial is. It will also influence future funding.
Watch forThe sample size re-estimation shows a good outcome. This means the trial design is strong.
Also watch forThe sample size re-estimation shows a bad outcome. This raises concerns about the trial design.