Timberland Bancorp Inc/WA (TSBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.45+0.78%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Maintain quarterly revenue near $25M to $27M: rev $21.8M vs $25M.
Timberland Bancorp grows earnings steadily with EPS up 22% in 2025. Revenue stays stable near $27M per quarter. The bank generates positive operating cash flow, reaching $12.35M in 2025-Q2. Profit margins and dividends remain solid, supporting shareholder returns.
Revenue growth is flat and may stall below $25M per quarter. Operating cash flow could weaken, risking liquidity. EPS growth might slow or reverse if market conditions worsen or operational efficiency declines.
The price is about 2% below our fair value near $45. Analysts expect roughly 11% revenue growth, which aligns with stable revenue and moderate EPS growth. Our view agrees with this justified valuation.
Breaks if: EPS growth falls below 6% YoY next quarter
Continue to grow net income and earnings per share with stable credit quality and margin expansion.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable growth opportunity in the financial sector. The current thesis is mixed, with management focused on sustaining earnings and revenue, but recent signals have shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not a severe downturn. TSBK's valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with expectations slightly below current performance levels.
Management is on track with priorities such as maintaining earnings growth and generating positive cash flow. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, especially given the company's smaller size and recent performance history.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. If these companies continue to perform well, TSBK may benefit, but any negative guidance from them could impact TSBK's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income grew from $7.10 million in 2025-Q3 to $7.72 million in 2026-Q3 (+9%), and EPS increased from $0.90 to $0.98 (+9%) over the same period. Management's statements and financial results show delivering earnings growth and profitability.
“CEO: 'Net income and earnings per share up 8% and 9%, respectively, from prior quarter and year ago quarter.'”
“CEO: 'Timberland delivered another strong quarter, with net income and earnings per share both growing 6% compared to the year ago quarter.'”
Breaks if: operating cash flow falls below $6M quarterly
Maintain positive cash flow from operations to support financial stability and capital needs.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities rose from $6.72 million in 2026-Q2 to $8.36 million in 2026-Q3, showing positive and improving operating cash flow. This matches management's stated priority and indicates delivering on cash flow generation.
“Cash from operating activities was $8.36 million this quarter.”
“Cash from operating activities was $6.72 million this quarter.”
Breaks if: quarterly revenue falls below $25M
Focus on sustaining or growing operating revenue and net interest income despite market conditions.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating revenue grew from $20.50 million in 2025-Q3 to $21.79 million in 2026-Q3 (+6%), and net interest income rose from $17.62 million to $18.81 million (+7%). Management's focus on stable revenue is supported by these increases, indicating delivering progress.
“CFO: 'Operating revenue increased 4% to $21.79 million from prior quarter and 6% year-over-year.'”
“CFO: 'Operating revenue decreased 3% to $21.05 million from prior quarter and increased 6% year-over-year.'”
Over the next one to three years, TSBK's performance will depend on management's execution and the broader financial sector's health. Not investment advice.