Timberland Bancorp Inc/WA (TSBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.45+0.78%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TSBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 220 industry peers
TSBK — legal / regulatory event — Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant
Dated 2026-01-07
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant On January 1, 2026, Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) was notified that Delap LLP (“Delap”), the Company's independent registered public accounting firm, merged with Aprio, LLP effective on January 1, 2026. The combined audit practices operate as Aprio, LLP (“Aprio”). In connection with the notification of the merger, Delap has resigned as the auditors of the Company and the Audit Committee of the Company’s Board of Directors approved the a…
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can keep its good performance after the last earnings beat.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings show a year-over-year increase in net income of at least 10%.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a year-over-year decline in net income.
Why it matters: An increase in net interest margin shows better profitability from loans. This can boost overall earnings.
Supportive ifNet interest margin is over 3.85%. This means loans are making more money.
Worry ifNet interest margin is under 3.81%. This means loans are making less money.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth may mean a slowdown in the financial sector. This could affect Timberland's performance.
Worry ifTimberland's revenue growth is now below the median of 15% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median of 15% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A steady or rising dividend shows management trusts in future earnings and cash flow.
Supportive ifThe cash dividend remains at $0.30 per share in the next announcement.
Worry ifThe cash dividend is reduced below $0.30 per share in the next announcement.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$93 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $236 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,445 loss on $10,000 · 14.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase in non-accrual loans could signal credit quality issues. This impacts overall loan portfolio strength.
Worry ifNon-accrual loans are expected to rise a lot compared to last quarter.
Less concerning ifNon-accrual loans decrease or remain stable.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact Timberland's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend policy can show how much management trusts future earnings and cash flow.
Supportive ifThe company will raise the quarterly cash dividend to more than $0.29 per share.
Worry ifThe company cuts the quarterly cash dividend below $0.29 per share.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio shows better cost control. This can help make more money.
Supportive ifThe efficiency ratio is now below 53.40%.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio worsens above 55.38%. This means costs are higher.
Why it matters: Operating revenue growth above 5% means Timberland is doing well. This supports their plan to grow.
Supportive ifOperating revenue grows more than 5% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating revenue grows less than 5% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings per share above $0.95 would show continued earnings growth, which is crucial for investor confidence.
Supportive ifEPS for Q3 2026 is reported above $0.95.
Worry ifEPS for Q3 2026 falls below $0.95.
Why it matters: Positive operating cash flow shows Timberland's financial health. It supports ongoing growth and investment.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow was positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow was negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows Timberland's ability to sustain earnings. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 net income grows more than 8% year over year, surpassing $7.72 million.
Worry ifQ3 net income growth is less than 8% year over year.
Why it matters: A stable or better net interest margin shows good management of income and costs.
Supportive ifNet interest margin remains above 3.80% for Q3.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.80% for Q3.
Why it matters: Slower deposit growth may mean customers are less confident. This can affect funding stability.
Worry ifTotal deposits grow less than 5% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits grow 5% or more year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in operating cash flow may show problems in keeping profits and growth.
Worry ifOperating cash flow exceeds $8 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow falls below $8 million in Q3.