Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Townsquare Media Inc (TSQ)
NYSECommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.18-27.57%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.34 → 0.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TSQ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA between $87 million and $93 million in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA target is $87 million to $93 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $87 million in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Townsquare’s third quarter results reflect the continued strength of our Digital Advertising platform,” commented Bill Wilson, Chief Executive Officer of Townsquare Media, Inc. “Third quarter net revenue of $110.9 million increased 3.9% year-over-year and exceeded our guidance range, Adjusted EBITDA of $22.6 million increased 2.7% year-over-year and was within our guidance range, and net loss narrowed by $1.5 million year-over-year to $4.0 million.” “For the full year 2026, net revenue is expected to be between $430 million and $432 million, and Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $87 million and $89 million, both within our original guidance ranges.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TSQ is a high-risk, loss-making business rather than a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state, with stable management and results that remain broadly in line with guidance, but recent performance sits below its industry cohort.
The valuation is about 19% above peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding relative to the model. The valuation evidence is marked as aligned, and no fragility gates fired, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, management remains on track for its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance, while revenue is stable but its goal is marked mixed. Second-quarter Adjusted EBITDA declined year over year, and revenue edged down slightly; the latest event was an earnings beat after two earlier misses. Risk has risen to high, and the next results carry a watch-level miss risk.
The near-term hinge is whether TSQ maintains guidance on the next call, since a cut would be a meaningful negative. Over the multi-year view, the setup also depends on whether the company can sustain its stated financial goals, alongside potential support from Fed rate cuts or continued strength among sector bellwethers.
Over the next one to three years, TSQ’s thesis rests on steady execution against guidance and improvement relative to its industry, while the loss-making profile and high risk remain important constraints. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share | The company keeps paying a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.20 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.20 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $0.20 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20260.2 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve annual revenue of about $430 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Townsquare Media Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$430 million. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $420 million in 2026 | Revenue: $110.948M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$430 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026110,948,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Townsquare’s third quarter results reflect the continued strength of our Digital Advertising platform,” commented Bill Wilson, Chief Executive Officer of Townsquare Media, Inc. “Third quarter net revenue of $110.9 million increased 3.9% year-over-year and exceeded our guidance range, Adjusted EBITDA of $22.6 million increased 2.7% year-over-year and was within our guidance range, and net loss narrowed by $1.5 million year-over-year to $4.0 million.” “For the full year 2026, net revenue is expected to be between $430 million and $432 million, and Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $87 million and $89 million, both within our original guidance ranges.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.29 → $0.34 · observed estimates
$0.43B → $0.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.29 | $433,785,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.29 | $433,785,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.29 | $433,785,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.29 | $433,785,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.29 | $433,785,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.29 | $433,785,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.29 | $433,785,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.29 | $433,785,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.29 | $433,785,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.29 | $430,321,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.34 | $431,216,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.