Townsquare Media Inc (TSQ)
NYSECommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.62-1.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TSQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name its industry peers have been missing lately and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TSQ — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-11
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, Townsquare Media Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the S…
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth could mean a turnaround in the declining sector. This might boost investor confidence in Townsquare Media.
Supportive ifTownsquare Media reports positive revenue growth in the next earnings release on August 6, 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains negative in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: This range is key to meeting the full-year revenue target of $420M to $440M.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $116 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue guidance falls below $114 million.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It promises to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend of $0.20 per share is declared and paid as scheduled.
Worry ifDividend is cut or stopped in future announcements.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows stable operations and good cost control. This helps investors.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is expected to be $87 million to $93 million for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is expected to be less than $87 million for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $409 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,400 loss on $10,000 · 24.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping the $0.20 dividend shows financial stability. A cut could mean bigger financial issues.
Worry ifThe dividend is $0.20 per share for Q2. This shows a commitment to capital use.
Less concerning ifThe dividend was cut below $0.20 per share. This signals possible financial trouble.
Why it matters: If revenue drops below this level, it shows ongoing challenges. This will affect the full-year target.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $100 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue reported above $100 million.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth is positive, it could help Townsquare Media. It shows a recovery in communication services.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth was above 2% year over year. This indicates a recovery.
Worry ifSector revenue growth was below 0%. This confirms an ongoing decline.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows progress towards the annual goal. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA must be $90 million or more.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA must be less than $87 million.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows Townsquare's digital strategy is working. It tells us if this trend will keep going.
Supportive ifDigital Advertising revenue grew over 11% from last year in Q3.
Worry ifDigital Advertising revenue grew less than 11% from last year in Q3.
Why it matters: Meeting this range indicates the company is on track to achieve its full-year revenue goals.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenue reported between $108 million and $110 million.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue reported below $108 million.
Why it matters: Doubling revenue from Media Partnerships shows good execution of the digital strategy. It also shows market growth.
Supportive ifMedia Partnerships revenue is reported to have doubled by the end of 2026.
Worry ifMedia Partnerships revenue growth does not show a big increase by the end of 2026.