Townsquare Media Inc (TSQ)
NYSECommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.08-4.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TSQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TSQ — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, Townsquare Media Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing operating results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18…
Why it matters: Digital ad growth rose from 7% in Q1 to 11% in Q2. Another rise would show that this growth engine is still gaining speed.
Supportive ifQ3 Digital Advertising revenue grows more than 11% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 Digital Advertising revenue grows 11% or less year over year, or falls from Q2's 11% rate.
Why it matters: Revenue was nearly flat in Q2, while broadcast and subscription sales fell. A result below guidance would show those declines outweighed digital growth.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 net revenue is below $425 million, the August guidance floor.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 net revenue is at least $425 million.
Why it matters: The company has paid $0.20 per share each quarter since at least Q4 2025. Keeping the payment would support its stated dividend plan.
Supportive ifThe November 2, 2026 payment is made at $0.20 per share, and the next declared quarterly dividend is also $0.20.
Worry ifThe November payment is missed or below $0.20 per share, or the next declared dividend is below $0.20.
Why it matters: Management tied this growth to a wider digital ad reach. The business had 16 media partners in Q2.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 Media Partnerships revenue is more than twice its 2025 level.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 Media Partnerships revenue is twice its 2025 level or less.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$185 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $724 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,131 loss on $10,000 · 71.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.