Mammoth Energy Services, Inc. (TUSK)
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.02-4.13%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TUSK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -55.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -45.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TUSK — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-30
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 28, 2026, Cobra Aviation Services LLC (“Cobra”) and Leopard Aviation LLC (“Leopard” and, together with Cobra, the “Borrowers”), aviation subsidiaries of Mammoth Energy Services, Inc. (“Mammoth”), entered into a Loan and Security Agreement (the “Loan Agreement”) dated October 26, 2026, with Bank7, as lender. The Loan Agreement provides for senior secured term loan commitments of up to $58.0 million, consisting of a $25.0 million Term Loan…
Why it matters: Revenue fell from $26.1 million in Q2 to $21.3 million in Q3. The full-year goal tests whether annual growth stays strong.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue from continuing operations grows more than 90% from full-year 2025.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue growth is 90% or less year over year.
Why it matters: Sand revenue fell from $8.0 million in Q2 to $5.2 million in Q3, as freight revenue dropped. Volume and price show demand and mix.
Watch forA later quarter reports at least 228,000 tons sold and an average price of at least $22.18 per ton.
Also watch forA later quarter reports less than 200,000 tons sold or an average price below $18.26 per ton.
Why it matters: More assets earned revenue in Q3: 29 of 44, up from 23 of 38 in Q2. This tests fleet use and growth.
Supportive ifQ4 results show more than 29 aviation assets earning revenue, with no fall in the share of assets earning revenue below 65%.
Worry ifQ4 results show fewer than 29 aviation assets earning revenue, or the share earning revenue falls below 60%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$187 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $606 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,385 loss on $10,000 · 33.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.