Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (TVTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$48.87-6.77%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.16 → 2.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TVTX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Progress on Everest Medicines partnership | A supporting condition in Travere Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Successful development and commercialization progress by end 2026. | Intact | Everest partnership fails or stalls in 2026 | Qualitative: Exclusive licensing agreement signed Jun 2026 Everest Medicines signed an exclusive licensing agreement for civorebrutinib in June 2026, reinforcing the strategic partnership thesis. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a clinical-stage biotech with a growing commercial product and a developing pipeline, rather than a proven, consistently profitable business. The long-term thesis is intact, with FILSPARI showing commercial progress, but volatile management, elevated risk, and loss-making results make execution central.
The valuation model describes TVTX as carrying a 3.62 premium versus peers, with a negative expectations gap and low model confidence. The pricing tag is justified, and no fragility flags were triggered, but the evidence gives limited confidence about how much pipeline optionality, or possible future value from development programs, is already reflected.
Near term, FILSPARI’s U.S. sales nearly doubled year over year in 2026-Q2, and new patient starts point to continued commercial momentum. However, TVTX missed its most recent quarter and has erratic earnings surprises, so the next results and guidance are important; the evidence flags a meaningful risk of a guidance cut. Over the multi-year view, HARMONY enrollment is continuing, with topline data anticipated in the second half of 2027, while civorebrutinib adds pipeline opportunity but has no revenue yet.
The thesis depends on FILSPARI continuing to expand its market reach and on management executing through leadership transitions. A guidance cut would weaken the near-term setup, while progress in the HARMONY study could support the longer-term pipeline case. Broader healthcare-sector momentum is a potential tailwind, but the evidence also flags concern that weaker jobs data could weigh on cyclical names, including healthcare stocks.
For the next one to three years, TVTX has a credible growth story in FILSPARI and a developing pipeline, but profitability, execution, and clinical progress remain unresolved. The long-term thesis is intact, with meaningful uncertainty around the next results and future pipeline evidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
FILSPARI revenue growth and patient reach | A primary condition in Travere Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $490 million total revenue in FY26. | Intact | Total revenue falls below $490 million in FY26 | Revenue: $224.563M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $490 million total revenue in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 2026224,563,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Strong execution across our business drove another quarter of significant growth, with FILSPARI net product sales of $200 million for the quarter as we continued to expand our reach in IgAN and FSGS,” said Eric Dube, Ph.D., president and chief executive officer of Travere Therapeutics.” “During the quarter, we made meaningful progress across each of our strategic growth pillars, driving continued commercial momentum for FILSPARI, including a promising early launch in FSGS and continued strength in IgA nephropathy, as well as advancing our pegtibatinase program toward its pivotal Phase 3 readout and expanding our rare kidney disease pipeline through the addition of civorebrutinib.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Achieve 2026 revenue guidance range | A primary condition in Travere Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue between $490 million and $550 million in FY26. | Intact | Revenue falls below $490 million in FY26 | Revenue: $224.563M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue between $490 million and $550 million in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 2026224,563,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.85 → $2.90 · observed estimates
$0.97B → $1.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.85 | $968,877,310 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.77 | $963,850,130 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.38 | $963,851,341 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.77 | $963,850,130 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.77 | $963,850,130 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.38 | $963,851,341 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.77 | $963,850,130 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.38 | $963,851,341 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.38 | $963,851,341 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.35 | $974,322,798 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.88 | $974,321,560 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.35 | $974,322,798 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.35 | $974,322,798 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.00 | $999,067,880 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.16 | $1,073,198,623 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.16 | $1,073,198,623 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.44 | $1,061,862,510 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.16 | $1,073,198,623 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.16 | $1,073,198,623 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.16 | $1,073,198,623 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.16 | $1,073,198,623 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.16 | $1,073,198,623 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.16 | $1,073,198,623 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.16 | $1,073,198,623 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.16 | $1,073,198,623 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.16 | $1,082,457,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.09 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.09 | $1,082,457,051 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.09 | $1,086,016,408 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.09 | $1,086,016,551 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.09 | $1,086,016,551 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.09 | $1,086,016,551 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.09 | $1,086,016,551 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.09 | $1,086,016,551 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.09 | $1,086,016,551 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.86 | $1,076,482,523 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.86 | $1,076,481,416 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.86 | $1,076,481,416 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.86 | $1,076,481,416 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.86 | $1,076,481,416 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.07 | $1,117,402,561 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.90 | $1,144,559,818 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.90 | $1,144,559,818 | 8 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.