Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (TVTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$65.28-1.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TVTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 57.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers
TVTX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026 , Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing, among other things, its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release and accompanying information is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report. The information in this Item 2.02, and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securi…
Why it matters: Management wants to grow FILSPARI's market reach. Updates will show growth potential.
Supportive ifFILSPARI has signed up more than 100,000 new patients.
Worry ifPatient enrollment numbers are not growing or are going down.
Why it matters: Higher R&D costs may mean more money spent on projects. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 R&D expenses exceed $70 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 R&D expenses remain below $70 million.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifQ3 net loss is below $30 million.
Worry ifQ3 net loss exceeds $40 million.
Why it matters: If healthcare revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit Travere. This would signal a better environment for the company.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth remains below 10% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$155 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $477 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,349 loss on $10,000 · 33.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This study is key for getting pegtibatinase approved. It will help bring it to market.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the Phase 3 HARMONY Study reaches 70 patients.
Worry ifEnrollment stagnates or falls short of 50 patients.
Why it matters: R&D spending shows a focus on product development. High costs may mean growth in the future.
Watch forR&D expenses remain at or below $60 million per quarter.
Also watch forR&D expenses exceed $70 million per quarter.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery or continued losses.
Watch forThe earnings report shows smaller losses. It also shows a way to make money.
Also watch forEarnings report shows increased losses or no clear plan for recovery.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth shows FILSPARI is expanding in the market. This supports long-term growth.
Supportive ifFILSPARI U.S. net product sales grow above 90% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifFILSPARI sales growth drops below 90% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Good data may prove pegtibatinase is an important treatment for HCU. This could help future growth.
Supportive ifData from the Phase 3 HARMONY Study shows a big drop in plasma tHcy levels.
Worry ifData from the HARMONY Study shows no big change in plasma tHcy levels.