Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (TVTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$48.87-6.77%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TVTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 63.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 91.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 116 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TVTX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 2, 2026 , Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing, among other things, its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release and accompanying information is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report. The information in this Item 2.02, and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the…
Why it matters: This study tests FILSPARI in Black patients with FSGS at high risk of worsening disease. A start would meet the stated timeline.
Supportive ifTravere says the first patient joined SPARLIGHT by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifNo first patient is enrolled by December 31, 2026, or Travere delays the study start.
Why it matters: The Phase 3 trial tests pegtibatinase in HCU. Its planned main results are due in the second half of 2027.
Supportive ifTravere reports ongoing HARMONY enrollment. It keeps its plan to enroll near 70 patients and report results in 2H 2027.
Worry ifTravere reports a pause, slower enrollment, a smaller planned study, or results pushed past 2H 2027.
Why it matters: Q2 sales rose 96% from a year ago. Q3 results will show if growth continues after the FSGS launch.
Supportive ifQ3 U.S. FILSPARI sales exceed $141 million, and new patient start forms exceed 2,012.
Worry ifQ3 U.S. FILSPARI sales fall below $141 million, or new patient start forms fall below 2,012.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$137 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $469 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,349 loss on $10,000 · 33.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.