Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Twin Disc Inc (TWIN)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$22.97-9.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.02 → 1.02 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TWIN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain disciplined capital spending | A supporting condition in Twin Disc Inc's published investment case. The stated target is maintain capital spending discipline. | Intact | Capital spending becomes undisciplined or excessive | $25M FY27 capex vs qualitative discipline target Twin Disc outlined $25M fiscal 2027 capex while targeting May 2027 startup for Katsa expansion. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TWIN is a small-cap industrial growth business focused on Marine, Defense, and Land-Based Transmissions. Its multi-year view is intact, with recent momentum improving, though confidence is medium and risk remains elevated.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting current expectations may be cautious. Pricing is tagged as justified with low fragility, but the evidence does not specify the market’s exact assumptions.
Near-term, recent results show strong sales growth and a large, nearly flat backlog, while free cash flow improved meaningfully in the latest quarter. Profitability is less consistent: gross margin fell in Q4 due mainly to product mix and tariff dilution, despite higher operating income. Erratic earnings surprises and the possibility of a guidance cut remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth in Marine, Propulsion, and Defense demand, alongside better and steadier margins and cash generation. In the near term, a guidance cut would be a negative signal, while continued strength from industrial bellwethers such as GEV, PH, and EMR could support the sector backdrop. Weak results or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TWIN has a credible growth and cash-generation case, but the thesis still depends on margin execution and resilience amid sector and company-specific risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Twin Disc Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.53 USD per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $1.53 in Q2 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $0.24 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=1.53 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2027-Q1. Nov 4, 20260.24 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Generate positive free cash flow | A primary condition in Twin Disc Inc's published investment case. The stated target is positive free cash flow. | Intact | Free cash flow turns negative next year | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least 10% revenue growth | A primary condition in Twin Disc Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=10.8% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.00 → $1.02 · observed estimates
$0.43B → $0.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.00 | $428,321,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.02 | $442,887,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.