Twin Disc Inc (TWIN)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.85+4.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Deliver EPS near $1.53 in fiscal Q2 2026: EPS 0.64 vs 1.53.
Twin Disc has a record backlog of $175.3M. It pays a quarterly cash dividend. Analysts expect about 11% revenue growth next year. The stock trades cheap with a PE of 11.9 versus peers at 31.3.
Litigation risks and recent capital obligations could hurt cash flow. Earnings estimates have fallen recently. The sector faces headwinds that may pressure sales and profits.
The price is about 32% below our fair value near $33. The market expects 11% revenue growth, which we agree with.
Breaks if: Capital spending becomes undisciplined or excessive
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.53 in Q2 2026
Breaks if: Free cash flow turns negative next year
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in Marine, Defense, and Land-Based Transmissions. The current thesis state remains intact, as recent financial performance is strong relative to its industry.
The market currently prices TWIN as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a negative expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not be fully accounting for the company's recent growth and operational improvements.
Management is on track with growth initiatives, although profitability improvements have shown mixed results. The near-term risk of missing earnings is low, but the company has experienced erratic earnings surprises in the past.
The thesis hinges on TWIN's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and manage profitability. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and TT will be crucial in determining the broader industrial momentum.
In the next 1 to 3 years, TWIN's performance will depend on its execution of growth strategies and the overall health of the industrial sector. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company reported record revenue growth. Revenue rose 18.3% year over year to $114.4 million. This shows strong demand in marine and land-based segments. However, there is a margin warning attached to these results. This could hinder profitability goals moving forward.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.