Twin Disc Inc (TWIN)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.85+4.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TWIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -58.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 70.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TWIN — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-25
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of such section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. The presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Li…
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow helps financial health. It also allows for flexible spending.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $2 million in Q2, indicating strong cash generation.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $1 million in Q2, raising concerns about cash management.
Why it matters: Updates on spending show how the company uses its resources.
Supportive ifManagement says spending is within budget and matches their goals.
Worry ifManagement says spending is more than the planned budget.
Why it matters: An increase in backlog would signal strong future demand and operational capacity. This supports the growth narrative.
Supportive ifBacklog exceeds $180 million at the end of Q1 2027.
Worry ifBacklog decreases below $175 million at the end of Q1 2027.
Why it matters: The outcome of the lawsuit could affect the company's money and operations.
Worry ifThe company gives a good update. The lawsuit is resolved in a good way.
Less concerning ifThe company reports a bad outcome from the lawsuit or higher legal costs.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth shows that demand is steady and operations are improving.
Supportive ifQ4 sales growth is over 15% compared to last year. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifQ4 sales growth is under 10% compared to last year. This suggests demand is weak.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company makes money and controls costs well.
Watch forEarnings report shows positive free cash flow for the quarter.
Also watch forEarnings report shows negative free cash flow for the quarter.
Why it matters: More capital spending can show growth plans. It also shows operational expansion.
Watch forCapital spending is over $5 million. This shows a commitment to growth.
Also watch forCapital spending is below $3 million. This suggests a cautious approach.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows good financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifFree cash flow is positive in Q4. This confirms good cash management.
Worry ifFree cash flow turns negative in Q4, raising concerns about cash management.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for Twin Disc. This would help the company as it navigates a maturing phase.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrial sector rises back toward 10% or higher.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrial sector remains below 5%.
Why it matters: Changes in spending could affect future growth and financial health.
Watch forManagement says they are spending carefully. There are no big increases.
Also watch forManagement announces big increases in spending. This could show potential risks.
Why it matters: Better gross margin means improved cost management and product mix. This helps make more money.
Supportive ifGross margin exceeds 28% in Q1 2027.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 26% in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Slower growth in defense may affect total sales and the company's plans.
Worry ifDefense revenue growth is below 10% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifDefense revenue growth is at or above 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Sales growth below this level could signal weakening demand in key markets like Marine and Defense.
Worry ifQ1 2027 sales growth below 15% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ1 2027 sales growth at or above 15% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A drop in backlog could indicate a slowdown in future sales and demand for products.
Worry ifSix-month backlog falls below $175 million.
Less concerning ifBacklog remains at or above $178 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$210 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $437 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,319 loss on $10,000 · 23.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.