Twin Disc Inc (TWIN)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$22.97-9.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TWIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -59.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 8.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 67.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 47 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TWIN — litigation filed
Dated 2026-11-04
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of such section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. The presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Li…
Why it matters: The six-month backlog was $178.3 million in Q4 FY26. Holding near that level while sales rise would support the growth story.
Supportive ifQ1 FY27 sales rise year over year and six-month backlog stays at or above $178.3 million.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 sales fall year over year and six-month backlog drops below $170 million.
Why it matters: Q4 free cash flow was $17.2 million, but the year had $9.2 million. A negative quarter would raise concern about cash gains lasting.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 free cash flow is below $0.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY27 free cash flow is above $0, with operating cash flow above capital spending.
Why it matters: Twin Disc tied a Finland facility expansion to rising defense demand. A clear start date or added output would show progress on this plan.
Supportive ifThe company says the Finland expansion is done or is adding output for defense programs.
Worry ifThe company says the Finland expansion is late or has not added output by the next two earnings reports.
Why it matters: Q4 gross margin fell to 26.3% on mix and tariff costs. A further drop would weaken the margin recovery case.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 gross margin is below 26.3%.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY27 gross margin rises above 26.3%, with less pressure from mix or tariffs.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $494 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,319 loss on $10,000 · 23.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The next report can show if strong demand and the Q4 backlog carried into the new year. It can also test whether margins and cash flow held up.
Watch forThe November 4 report shows sales growth from last year, gross margin above 26.3%, and positive free cash flow.
Also watch forThe November 4 report shows sales fell from last year, gross margin below 26.3%, or negative free cash flow.
Why it matters: The latest reported organic sales growth was 15.9% in Q4. The industrial sector backdrop is slowing, so another strong quarter would show company demand holding up.
Supportive ifQ1 FY27 organic sales grow at least 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 organic sales are flat or lower year over year.