Twilio (TWLO)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$213.50-0.13%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TWLO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TWLO — officer change
Dated 2026-06-17
Annual board election with no specific executive departure or promotion mentioned.
Why it matters: Twilio guided to 11% to 12% organic growth for Q4. A result below 11% would miss the low end.
Worry ifQ4 2026 organic revenue growth is below 11%.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 organic revenue growth is 11% or higher.
Why it matters: Twilio raised its full-year cash outlook to $1.19 billion to $1.20 billion. A shortfall would break that target.
Worry if2026 free cash flow is below $1.19 billion.
Less concerning if2026 free cash flow is at least $1.19 billion.
Why it matters: Twilio raised its full-year profit outlook, but Q4 still has a clear floor. A miss would weaken the profit growth story.
Worry ifQ4 non-GAAP income from operations is below $300 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 non-GAAP income from operations is $300 million or more.
Why it matters: This rate shows whether current customers spend more over time. It rose from 109% in Q3 2025 to 114% in Q3 2026.
Supportive ifThe next reported dollar-based net expansion rate tops 114%.
Worry ifThe next reported rate is below 114%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$213 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $499 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,194 loss on $10,000 · 31.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.