Twilio (TWLO)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$232.98-3.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TWLO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers
TWLO — officer change
Dated 2026-06-17
Annual board election with no specific executive departure or promotion mentioned.
Why it matters: Twilio made over $100M in operating income. This shows it is managing costs better.
Supportive ifIn Q2, operating income was over $100M.
Worry ifIn Q2, operating income was below $100M.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if Twilio can maintain its growth momentum. It reflects management's confidence in future performance.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue guidance falls within the range of $1.420 billion to $1.430 billion.
Worry ifQ2 revenue guidance falls below $1.420 billion.
Why it matters: Improving gross profit matters. A higher margin shows better efficiency.
Supportive ifGross profit margin reported above 60% in Q2.
Worry ifGross profit margin reported below 60% in Q2.
Why it matters: Active share repurchases can signal management's confidence in the stock. It may support share price.
Supportive ifTwilio announces share repurchases of $200 million or more in Q2.
Worry ifTwilio announces no share repurchases in Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$187 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $460 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,473 loss on $10,000 · 24.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Falling below this level shows problems in making money as growth slows.
Worry ifNon-GAAP income from operations was less than $285 million.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP income from operations meets or exceeds $295 million.
Why it matters: Lower free cash flow guidance may show problems with cash generation and spending.
Worry ifFree cash flow guidance for FY2026 is below $1.135 billion.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow guidance for FY2026 meets or exceeds $1.135 billion.
Why it matters: Making more money is important. A good change would mean better cost control.
Supportive ifOperating income is up compared to last year in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income declines or remains flat year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: A decline may show problems in making cash. This can affect future investments.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $352 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow meets or exceeds $353 million.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below 16% would signal a slowdown in Twilio's growth momentum.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 16%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 16.5%.
Why it matters: A drop in this rate means weaker customer retention and upselling.
Worry ifDollar-Based Net Expansion Rate was less than 116%.
Less concerning ifDollar-Based Net Expansion Rate remains at or above 116%.
Why it matters: A slowdown may show changes in how money is spent or cash flow problems.
Worry ifShare buybacks fell below $66 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases remain at or above $66 million in Q3.