Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
TherapeuticsMD Inc (TXMD)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.82+2.25%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.19 → 0.19 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TXMD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net income improves to positive $95,000 by 2026-Q1 | Net income improved from a loss of $653K to a gain of $95K. | Intact | net income falls below -$653,000 next year | Net income: $155,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $95,000. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 11, 2026155,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small-cap improvement story, with revenue growth, lower operating losses, and positive operating cash flow supporting the long-term thesis. The thesis is intact and recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though confidence is medium and risk remains high.
The valuation model indicates a durable premium versus peers, but its confidence is low. The evidence says weak execution quality is reflected in the setup, while the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence is not; the market’s specific expectations are not detailed.
Management has consistently emphasized revenue growth, profitability, and positive operating cash flow, with recent results showing progress on all three. Near-term earnings risk is elevated, including a stated 59% miss probability, despite two recent reports described as in line.
The multi-year case hinges on continued revenue growth, lower operating losses, and progress toward lasting profitability while maintaining positive operating cash flow. In the near term, weakening jobs data could weigh on cyclical and healthcare names; continued strength or weakness among healthcare bellwethers could also strengthen or fade the sector tailwind.
TXMD’s operating trend supports an intact but high-risk 1-to-3-year thesis, with near-term earnings uncertainty and a low-confidence peer premium as important cautions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Net income improved from a loss of $653,000 in 2025-Q1 to a positive $95,000 in 2026-Q1, showing progress toward profitability. The trajectory is delivering improvement in net income.
Operating loss improves to no worse than -$723,000 by 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in TherapeuticsMD Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= -$723,000. | Intact | operating loss worsens beyond -$1.28M next year | Operating income: $-816,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -$723,000. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 11, 2026-816,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $393,000 in 2025-Q1 to $724,000 in 2026-Q1, while operating losses improved from $1,281,000 to $723,000 over the same period. The trajectory shows delivering progress on revenue growth and reducing operating losses. Delivery assessment Aug 10, 2026 |
Maintain positive cash flow from operations near $944,000 in 2026-Q1 | The company keeps positive cash flow from operations near $944K. | Intact | operating cash flow falls below $375,000 next year | Cash from operations: $770,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $375,000. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 11, 2026770,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Cash from operating activities remained positive each quarter, ranging from $375,000 in 2025-Q4 to $999,000 in 2025-Q3, and was $944,000 in 2026-Q1. The company is delivering consistent positive cash flow from operations. Delivery assessment Aug 10, 2026 |
Revenue grows to at least $724,000 by 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in TherapeuticsMD Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=$724,000. | Intact | revenue falls below $393,000 next year | Revenue: $869,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$724,000. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 11, 2026869,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $393,000 in 2025-Q1 to $724,000 in 2026-Q1, while operating losses improved from $1,281,000 to $723,000 over the same period. The trajectory shows delivering progress on revenue growth and reducing operating losses. Delivery assessment Aug 10, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.19 → $0.19 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.19 | $9,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.