TherapeuticsMD Inc (TXMD)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.21-1.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TXMD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 24 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TXMD — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information provided in
Why it matters: TXMD works in a tough sector. How it changes could affect its market position and investor trust.
Worry ifTXMD shares new plans or partnerships to deal with sector problems.
Less concerning ifTXMD does not tackle sector issues and shows worsening financial results.
Why it matters: An announcement about a merger or acquisition could change the company's future. Investors will want to see if this leads to growth.
Supportive ifA press release confirms a merger or acquisition deal is done.
Worry ifNo news on strategic options after the exploration period ends.
Why it matters: This would show that the company can make more money. It can also help profits.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported above $786,000, which is over 100% growth from Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $393,000, indicating no growth from the previous year.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow means the company is doing well financially. It helps keep operations running.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported above $900,000 for Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $800,000 for Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $560 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,430 loss on $10,000 · 34.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in license revenue shows the company can make money from its new model.
Supportive ifLicense revenue for Q2 exceeds $724,000, showing continued growth.
Worry ifLicense revenue for Q2 drops below $724,000, showing possible sales problems.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows the company is making money. This could bring in more investors.
Supportive ifQ2 net income was over $150,000, showing ongoing improvement.
Worry ifQ2 net income remains negative or below $50,000.
Why it matters: Better net income is important for investor trust. A good trend shows progress toward profits.
Supportive ifNet income in Q2 is positive and greater than $103,000.
Worry ifNet income in Q2 is negative or less than $103,000.
Why it matters: A drop would signal a shift in the healthcare sector, impacting TXMD's growth outlook.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth reported below its median rate.
Less concerning ifHealthcare sector revenue growth remains above its median rate.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to understanding TXMD's position in a maturing healthcare sector. A strong trend could signal recovery.
Supportive ifTXMD's revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now close to 9% year over year.
Worry ifTXMD reports revenue growth slowing below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show revenue, cash flow, and profit progress. This is important for checking performance.
Watch forEarnings report shows strong revenue and positive cash flow.
Also watch forEarnings report shows weak revenue and negative cash flow.