Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
TXNM Energy (TXNM)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-05
$58.39-0.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.24 → 3.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TXNM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure in H2 2026 | The company aims to finish its Blackstone acquisition in 2026. | Improving | Acquisition fails or is delayed beyond 2026 | Qualitative: Merger revised with $300M benefits (Sep 2026) TXNM and Blackstone revised merger terms in Sep 2026, enhancing benefits by $300M despite regulatory scrutiny and recent equity issuance. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regulated-utility business with a multi-year thesis tied to grid reliability and customer demand, rather than a high-growth story. Earnings quality is robust, but management execution is rated volatile and the thesis state is watch.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure labels TXNM cheap versus peers, while the reported premium versus peers is 0.87 and the value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is slightly negative at -0.04, and the priced-in tag is justified with low fragility, so the snapshot does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Recent company momentum improved after fresh earnings, and an earnings beat was reported on October 30; recent financial performance is still rated neutral and below its industry cohort. Near term, the miss-risk estimate is 32%, with a quiet watch tier, while repeated past misses and peer misses remain concerns. The acquisition is still pending regulatory approval, with closing expected in the first half of 2027, and reported results do not yet quantify its funding or customer benefits.
Over the next one to three years, completing the Blackstone Infrastructure acquisition and showing measurable progress on grid reliability, customer demand, and cost management are key execution tests. Near-term sector support could strengthen if the Federal Reserve cuts rates or utility bellwethers NEE, SO, and DUK continue to report strong results and guidance; misses or lower guidance could weaken that support.
TXNM has robust earnings quality and some recent momentum, but its multi-year view remains on watch because execution evidence is limited, performance trails its industry cohort, and valuation assessments conflict. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The termination date under the agreement has been extended to May 31, 2027, to allow for further time to obtain regulatory approvals.” “Pending the re-establishment of a procedural schedule, the transaction is estimated to close in the first half of 2027.”
Execute $10.2 billion capital investment plan for 2026-2030 | TXNM plans a $10.2 billion investment to improve infrastructure. | Intact | Total capital investment falls below $10 billion by 2030 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve cash flow from operations to support investments | A supporting condition in TXNM Energy's published investment case. The stated target is >= $153 million per quarter. | Intact | Cash flow from operations falls below $140 million per quarter | Cash from operations: $-101.95M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $153 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 2026-101,950,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain dividend growth with quarterly increases | A primary condition in TXNM Energy's published investment case. The stated target is Dividend per share >= $0.42 per quarter. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.40 per quarter | Dividend per share: $0.42 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.42 per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 20260.4225 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.25 → $3.27 · observed estimates
$2.51B → $2.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.25 | $2,513,288,470 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.25 | $2,513,288,470 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.25 | $2,513,288,470 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.25 | $2,513,288,470 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.25 | $2,513,288,470 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.25 | $2,513,288,470 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.25 | $2,513,288,470 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.25 | $2,517,621,800 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.26 | $2,526,679,820 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.25 | $2,449,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.25 | $2,451,803,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.24 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.28 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.28 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.28 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.28 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.27 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.27 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.27 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.27 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.27 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.27 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.27 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.27 | $2,476,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.27 | $2,476,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.27 | $2,476,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.27 | $2,476,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.27 | $2,476,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.27 | $2,476,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.27 | $2,476,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.27 | $2,476,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.27 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.27 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.27 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.27 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.27 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.27 | $2,476,502,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.27 | $2,475,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.27 | $2,475,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.27 | $2,475,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.