TXNM Energy (TXNM)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-05
$58.39-0.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TXNM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TXNM — debt issuance
Dated 2026-09-02
Other Events. On August 31, 2026, TXNM entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Wells Fargo Securities, LLC (the “Underwriter”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell to the Underwriter 7,079,646 shares of its common stock, no par value, in connection with an underwritten public offering (the “Offering”) at a purchase price of $55.935 per share. The Offering closed on September 2, 2026. The Company received net proceeds from the Offering of a…
Why it matters: NMPRC approval is the key remaining state step for the Blackstone deal. A delay or denial could put the planned first-half 2027 close at risk.
Watch forNMPRC approves the changed deal terms after the January 19–February 1, 2027 hearings. This moves the deal toward its first-half 2027 close.
Also watch forNMPRC rejects the deal, adds major new conditions, or delays a decision beyond the stated first-half 2027 close window.
Why it matters: PNM's plan addresses power needs from load growth and its planned Four Corners exit. A ruling will shape the mix of new power and storage.
Watch forNMPRC approves the proposed agreements for 800 MW of wind, 240 MW of solar, and 610 MW of battery storage. It also approves the 40 MW gas expansion.
Also watch forNMPRC rejects or sharply cuts the proposed resource portfolio. Or it does not approve a plan before the stated resource shortfalls begin in 2029.
Why it matters: The line aims to strengthen PNM's east-to-west grid. Approval would clear a step toward a large planned grid project.
Supportive ifNMPRC grants the requested certificate for the new 345 kV line, station work, and right-of-way work. The estimated cost is near $595 million.
Worry ifNMPRC denies the certificate or requires a major redesign. This delays or greatly changes the proposed project.
Why it matters: Ongoing EPS rose from $1.33 a year earlier. The next report can show whether higher load and rate recovery keep supporting earnings.
Watch forThe next reported quarter's ongoing diluted EPS is above the year-earlier quarter. Higher load or rate recovery is cited as support.
Also watch forThe next reported quarter's ongoing diluted EPS is below the year-earlier quarter. Higher costs or weaker load is cited as a cause.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$23 on $10,000 · ±0.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $52 loss on $10,000 · 0.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $518 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.