TXNM Energy (TXNM)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
$58.00-0.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TXNM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 31 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TXNM — debt issuance
Dated 2026-09-02
Other Events. On August 31, 2026, TXNM entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Wells Fargo Securities, LLC (the “Underwriter”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell to the Underwriter 7,079,646 shares of its common stock, no par value, in connection with an underwritten public offering (the “Offering”) at a purchase price of $55.935 per share. The Offering closed on September 2, 2026. The Company received net proceeds from the Offering of a…
Why it matters: Approval would confirm TNMP's ability to recover $2.8 billion in rate base. This supports TXNM's growth strategy.
Supportive ifPUCT approves TNMP's base rate review and rate recovery mechanisms.
Worry ifPUCT denies TNMP's base rate review, delaying recovery of the rate base.
Why it matters: Better cash flow would help TXNM's investment plans and keep operations stable.
Supportive ifCash from operations rises above $153.2 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $153.2 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Increasing dividends above $0.4225 shows TXNM cares about giving cash to shareholders. This shows it is financially healthy.
Supportive ifDividend per share increases above $0.4225.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at or below $0.4225.
Why it matters: These updates show how TXNM meets customer needs and clean energy goals.
Watch forPNM gets approval for key parts of its grid modernization plan.
Also watch forPNM faces delays or rejections in its grid modernization plan.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$23 on $10,000 · ±0.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $50 loss on $10,000 · 0.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $518 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Filing the compliance report is essential for progressing the merger approval process. Delays could hinder the timeline.
Supportive ifTXNM files the compliance report with the NMPRC by the end of July 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe compliance report is not filed on time, causing delays in the merger process.
Why it matters: This deal may impact TXNM's financial health and its ability to fund operations.
Watch forTXNM shows better cash flow or financial results after the Note Purchase Agreement.
Also watch forTXNM faces cash flow issues or increased debt levels post-agreement.
Why it matters: This approval is crucial for TXNM Energy to complete its merger with Blackstone Infrastructure. Delays could impact future growth plans.
Supportive ifApproval from the NMPRC for the merger by the end of 2026.
Worry ifFurther delays in the NMPRC approval process or a negative ruling.
Why it matters: Resuming the schedule shows progress in the merger. This is important for TXNM's future.
Supportive ifThe NMPRC resumes its procedural schedule for the merger by the end of 2026.
Worry ifMore delays in the NMPRC's schedule or new problems.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if TXNM Energy is increasing revenue and cash flow as planned.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings show revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: The IRP will show PNM's plan for energy generation. It could affect future earnings.
Watch forPNM files its 2026 IRP with the NMPRC on or before September 1, 2026.
Also watch forPNM delays the filing of its 2026 IRP beyond the expected date.
Why it matters: The IRP will show TXNM's long-term plans for energy and infrastructure.
Watch forTXNM files the 2026 IRP with the NMPRC by the expected deadline.
Also watch forTXNM delays the filing of the 2026 IRP beyond the expected deadline.
Why it matters: Cash flow growth above $153.2M means TXNM is getting better at running its business. This could make it financially stronger.
Supportive ifCash from operations was above $153.2M.
Worry ifCash from operations was below $153.2M.
Why it matters: This rate change will affect TXNM's money and profits. It shows how well they recover rates.
Watch forPUCT implements final rates that show a positive impact on TXNM's revenue.
Also watch forPUCT delays or changes the rate, hurting TXNM's revenue.
Why it matters: Changes to the dividend policy can show how well the company is doing financially. It also shows its value to shareholders.
Watch forTXNM Energy raises dividends per share, showing strong cash flow.
Also watch forTXNM Energy cuts or stops dividends, which may mean cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Final rates will impact revenue and earnings for TXNM. This is a key milestone for TNMP's rate recovery.
Supportive ifFinal approved rates start on September 13, 2026. This will increase revenue.
Worry ifFinal rates start later or bring in less than the expected $2.8 billion.
Why it matters: This plan is important for updating the grid and clean energy. It affects growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they will invest over $1 billion by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThere are big delays or budget cuts to the investment plan.
Why it matters: Litigation could change the merger timeline and TXNM's focus.
Worry ifThe lawsuit ends well. This lets the merger go ahead.
Less concerning ifThe lawsuit causes delays. It creates problems for the merger agreement.
Why it matters: Doing this plan well helps TXNM grow and modernize. It will affect future earnings.
Supportive ifTXNM Energy is making progress on its capital investment plan. They have spent a lot.
Worry ifTXNM Energy fails to meet key milestones in the capital investment plan.