Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$189.56+0.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TXRH
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $190 the market pays 30× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 30× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $150 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $175–$235. Note: our $150 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($175–$235). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $224 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $210.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $357.05 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $363.60 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $65.84 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$175.00 – $235.00 (median $210.00) · 19 analysts · as of 2026-08-10
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 46% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 5.3 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $5.62/sh free cash flow.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $58.05 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $128.00 | 11.1 | 11.39 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $141.27 | 22.9 | 6.16 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $158.93 | 21.5 | 7.41 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $86.91 | 0.9 | 94.53 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $328.00 | 52.5 | 6.25 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $42.75 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $189.20 | 30.3 | 6.25 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $104.45 | 16.9 | 6.20 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $214.85 | 22.9 | 9.38 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $200.50 | 21.5 | 9.35 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $119.59 | 0.9 | 130.08 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $490.43 | 52.5 | 9.35 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $282.89 | 30.3 | 9.35 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $284.14 | 22.9 | 12.40 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $246.85 | 21.5 | 11.51 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $147.23 | 0.9 | 160.15 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $603.79 | 52.5 | 11.51 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $348.28 | 30.3 | 11.51 | Analyst | medium |