Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-30 · fmp
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$196.45+6.48%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.79 → 7.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 30, 2027 · 21 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 20 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TXRH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend at $0.75 per share | Dividends increased to $0.75 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.68 next year | Dividend per share: $0.75 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.75 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20260.75 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a restaurant growth business with signs of durable operating strength, not a turnaround. The multi-year view is intact, though momentum has weakened and the evidence carries medium confidence.
TXRH is tagged as stretched and carries a durable premium versus peers, so the market appears to expect sustained business quality and growth. The valuation model has low confidence, and the expectations gap is modest, which limits certainty about what is already assumed.
Near term, comparable restaurant sales and store expansion have been progressing: comparable sales reached 6.2% in 2026-Q2, and the company opened 16 restaurants in the first half of 2026. Restaurant margin dollars also increased despite commodity and wage inflation, but recent earnings misses and a sharp drop in company momentum are meaningful cautions.
The next guidance update matters: a cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued execution on sales growth, expansion, and margins would support the multi-year thesis. Consumer Discretionary sector signals are another swing factor, with bellwether earnings and guidance either sustaining or weakening the sector tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TXRH’s operating progress supports an intact long-term thesis, but the stretched valuation leaves less room for execution setbacks. The read depends on guidance, continued margin management, and whether recent earnings misses persist. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Texas Roadhouse's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income increase consistent with recent trajectory. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating income fails to grow or declines next year |
Operating income: $142.788M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income increase consistent with recent trajectory. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026142,788,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth through menu pricing and store expansion | A primary condition in Texas Roadhouse's published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY revenue growth. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 11.11% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=12% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202611.105556 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.66 → $7.67 · observed estimates
$7.15B → $7.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.66 | $7,145,824,902 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.66 | $7,145,824,902 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.67 | $7,145,213,345 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.67 | $7,145,213,345 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.67 | $7,145,213,345 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.67 | $7,144,638,255 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.67 | $7,144,638,255 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.67 | $7,144,638,255 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.67 | $7,144,638,255 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.67 | $7,144,638,255 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.67 | $7,144,638,255 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.67 | $7,146,888,263 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.67 | $7,146,888,263 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.67 | $7,146,888,263 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.67 | $7,146,888,263 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.67 | $7,146,888,263 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.67 | $7,146,888,263 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.67 | $7,146,888,263 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.67 | $7,146,888,263 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.67 | $7,146,888,263 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.67 | $7,146,888,263 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.67 | $7,146,888,263 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.67 | $7,146,888,263 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.67 | $7,146,888,263 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.67 | $7,146,888,263 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.81 | $7,149,719,353 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.81 | $7,149,719,353 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.81 | $7,149,719,353 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.81 | $7,149,719,353 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.81 | $7,149,719,353 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.79 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.79 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.79 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.79 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.80 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.80 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.80 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.80 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.80 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.80 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.79 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.79 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.80 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.80 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.80 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.80 | $7,148,596,847 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.81 | $7,150,112,353 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.81 | $7,150,112,353 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.81 | $7,151,141,914 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.81 | $7,151,141,914 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.81 | $7,151,141,914 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.81 | $7,151,141,914 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.81 | $7,151,141,914 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.81 | $7,152,478,843 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.81 | $7,152,478,843 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.81 | $7,152,478,843 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.81 | $7,160,638,510 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.81 | $7,160,638,510 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.81 | $7,160,638,510 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.81 | $7,160,638,510 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.81 | $7,160,638,510 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.81 | $7,160,591,806 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.80 | $7,162,768,414 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.80 | $7,162,768,414 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.80 | $7,162,768,414 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.80 | $7,162,768,414 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.80 | $7,162,768,414 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.79 | $7,161,249,632 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.79 | $7,161,249,632 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.79 | $7,161,248,747 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.79 | $7,161,248,747 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.79 | $7,160,448,747 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.79 | $7,160,448,747 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.79 | $7,159,575,670 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.79 | $7,159,575,670 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.79 | $7,159,575,670 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.79 | $7,159,575,670 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.79 | $7,159,252,324 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.79 | $7,159,252,324 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.79 | $7,157,301,028 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.79 | $7,157,301,912 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.79 | $7,157,582,682 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.78 | $7,155,924,190 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.78 | $7,155,924,190 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.76 | $7,148,970,458 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.76 | $7,148,970,458 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.76 | $7,148,970,458 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.76 | $7,148,970,458 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.71 | $7,142,139,761 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.71 | $7,142,139,761 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.69 | $7,139,480,222 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.69 | $7,139,480,222 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.69 | $7,139,480,222 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.69 | $7,139,480,222 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.67 | $7,138,784,338 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.67 | $7,138,784,338 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.67 | $7,138,784,338 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.67 | $7,138,784,338 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.67 | $7,138,784,338 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.67 | $7,138,784,338 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.67 | $7,138,122,799 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.67 | $7,138,122,799 | 21 / 20 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.