Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$189.56+0.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TXRH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TXRH — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
and the Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Such information will not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement filed by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated by reference. 2 SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the S…
Why it matters: A drop in restaurant margin percentage may mean costs are rising faster than sales. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifRestaurant margin is below 15%.
Less concerning ifRestaurant margin is above 15%.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth would show Texas Roadhouse is overcoming recent challenges. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth stays below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: New openings show growth potential and market expansion. This can drive future revenue.
Supportive ifAt least 5 new company or franchise restaurants opened in Q3.
Worry ifFewer than 3 new company or franchise restaurants opened in Q3.
Why it matters: Opening more than 10 new restaurants would signal strong growth and expansion plans.
Supportive ifMore than 10 new restaurants opened in Q3 2026.
Worry if10 or fewer new restaurants opened in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$126 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $259 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,961 loss on $10,000 · 19.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher costs for commodities can hurt profit margins.
Worry ifCommodity inflation was more than 5% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCommodity inflation was at or below 5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Improving margins show Texas Roadhouse is managing costs well despite inflation. This can boost profits.
Supportive ifRestaurant profits go up each year, even with inflation.
Worry ifRestaurant profits go down each year because of inflation.
Why it matters: The earnings report will clarify if the recent earnings miss was a one-time issue or a trend.
Watch forQ2 earnings beat analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Also watch forQ2 earnings miss analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Earnings growth is a key measure of financial health. A drop below this rate could raise concerns.
Worry ifQ2 diluted earnings per share growth falls below 9.6%.
Less concerning ifQ2 diluted earnings per share growth exceeds 9.6%.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in business momentum. This could impact future expectations.
Worry ifRevenue growth in Q2 2026 is below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth in Q2 2026 is above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings per share shows how profitable a company is. A lower EPS may mean problems.
Worry ifDiluted EPS reported below $1.87 for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifDiluted EPS meets or exceeds $1.87.
Why it matters: An increase shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.75 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in dividend above $0.75 per share.
Why it matters: Better operating income means Texas Roadhouse is controlling costs. This is key for making money.
Supportive ifOperating income increases by more than 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income increases by less than 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $0.75 per share confirmed on September 29, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is canceled or cut.
Why it matters: More spending may mean big growth plans or money problems.
Watch forSpending is over $400 million in 2026.
Also watch forSpending stays at or below $400 million in 2026.
Why it matters: This growth rate is crucial for assessing ongoing demand and operational strength. A drop could signal weakening consumer interest.
Worry ifQ3 restaurant sales growth is below 6.2%.
Less concerning ifQ3 restaurant sales growth is above 6.2%.
Why it matters: A decline in margin percentage could signal rising costs that are not being offset by sales growth.
Worry ifRestaurant margin as a percentage of sales is down from 16.4%.
Less concerning ifRestaurant margin as a percentage of sales is steady or up from 16.4%.