Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$196.45+6.48%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TXRH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 32.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
TXRH — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-05
OTHER EVENTS On November 4, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors approved the payment of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.75 per share of common stock. This payment will be distributed on December 29, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 1, 2026.
Why it matters: Food and labor costs cut Q2 restaurant margin by 66 basis points. A further drop would show that sales gains are not covering those costs.
Worry ifQ3 restaurant margin rate falls more than 66 basis points year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 restaurant margin rate is flat or higher year over year.
Why it matters: New restaurants and franchise deals drive growth beyond existing stores. The company opened 16 restaurants in the first half.
Supportive ifFull-year store-week growth is at least 5%, within the 5% to 6% goal.
Worry ifFull-year store-week growth falls below 5%, or planned openings are delayed.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue rose 11.1%, but diluted earnings per share fell 0.7%. The next report can show whether profit growth returns.
Watch forOn November 5, Q3 earnings per share and same-store sales both rise year over year.
Also watch forOn November 5, earnings per share falls year over year, or same-store sales growth is below 4%.
Why it matters: Sales rose 6.2% in Q2, even as restaurant margin fell. The next report tests whether strong guest demand lasts.
Watch forQ3 same-store sales growth is at least 6.0%, with positive guest traffic.
Also watch forQ3 same-store sales growth falls below 4.0%, or guest traffic turns negative.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$112 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $260 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,713 loss on $10,000 · 27.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.