Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Tigo Energy Inc (TYGO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.00+8.91%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TYGO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA of about $2 million in 2026-Q2 | It plans adjusted EBITDA of around $2 million in 2026-Q2. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $1 million in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TYGO is a speculative growth business working to expand revenue and reach adjusted EBITDA profitability, meaning profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, with certain adjustments. The multi-year view is on watch: management has made progress on growth and costs, but recent performance trails its industry cohort and the risk label has risen to high.
The valuation evidence says TYGO is cheap versus peers, while a separate comparison shows a 19% premium to peers; model confidence is low, so the valuation signal is mixed. The expectations gap is negative, and priced-in fragility is low, but the evidence does not establish that the market has fully accounted for execution and sector risks.
Near term, revenue growth has slowed: second-quarter revenue rose 5.6% year over year, versus 33.7% in the first quarter. Operating expenses declined, and the adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed in the first quarter, but progress toward profitability remains mixed; the U.S. optimized inverter launch was delayed to Q4 2026. The next results carry meaningful execution risk, with a 42% estimated miss probability, while another guidance cut would be a clear negative signal.
The multi-year thesis hinges on continued revenue growth, international expansion, product ramps, and improved operating efficiency that brings adjusted EBITDA toward profitability. Near term, guidance is a key swing factor: a cut would weaken the setup, while steady guidance and improving results at sector peers could ease pressure. Federal Reserve rate cuts are another possible tailwind for rate-sensitive technology businesses, though they would not resolve company-specific execution risks.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TYGO’s thesis depends on turning product and market expansion into steadier growth and better profitability, while managing high risk and weak recent performance. Current evidence supports a watchful, uncertain multi-year view rather than a confirmed improvement. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company works to keep gross profit stable despite revenue changes. |
| Under Pressure |
| Gross profit falls below $10 million per quarter |
Gross profit: $11.097M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Maintain gross profit near $10.79 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202611,097,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $132.5 million in 2026 | Tigo Energy aims to grow revenue to about $132.5 million in 2026. | Broken | Revenue falls below $130 million in FY26 | Revenue: $24.039M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$132.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202624,039,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.14 → $-0.05 · observed estimates
$0.16B → $0.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.14 | $161,500,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.14 | $161,500,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.14 | $161,500,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.14 | $161,500,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.14 | $161,500,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.14 | $161,500,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.14 | $161,500,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.14 | $161,500,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.14 | $161,500,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.14 | $161,500,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.14 | $161,500,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.14 | $161,500,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.14 | $161,500,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.14 | $161,500,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.00 | $129,732,499 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.03 | $138,432,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.00 | $129,732,499 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.00 | $129,732,499 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.00 | $129,732,499 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.00 | $129,732,499 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.00 | $129,732,499 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.00 | $129,732,499 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.00 | $129,732,499 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.00 | $129,732,499 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.00 | $129,732,499 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.05 | $117,707,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.05 | $119,110,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.