Tigo Energy Inc (TYGO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.07+0.94%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TYGO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -75.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 79.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
TYGO — credit agreement
Dated 2026-04-02
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 31, 2026, Tigo Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a revolving credit facility (the “Credit Facility”) among the Company, as borrower, Tigo Energy MergeCo, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company (“Tigo MergeCo”), as guarantor, and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as lender. The obligations of the Company under the Credit Facility are guaranteed by Tigo MergeCo. Aggregate commitments under the Credit Facility total up to…
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below the median could signal weakening demand for Tigo Energy's products. This would impact investor confidence.
Worry ifTigo Energy's revenue growth is below the sector median. This shows demand is getting weaker.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth is above the sector median. This suggests demand is strong and stable.
Why it matters: Keeping a gross profit margin above 40% is key for Tigo's profits.
Supportive ifGross profit margin is above 40% in the next quarters.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 40% for two consecutive quarters.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into revenue and cost trends. Investors will look for signs of improvement in profitability.
Watch forThe company sets a date for its next earnings report. This shows it values transparency.
Also watch forThere is no news about the next earnings date. This may mean there is uncertainty.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA results show Tigo can manage costs and make more money. This helps investor confidence.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 comes in between $1 million and $3 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $1 million or still negative.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well Tigo is handling market conditions and sales.
Watch forQ3 revenue comes in at the high end of the guidance range or above $26M.
Also watch forQ3 revenue falls below $24M.
Why it matters: This launch is crucial for Tigo's growth and could drive significant revenue.
Supportive ifThe new inverter solution will launch on time in Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe launch is delayed further or canceled.
Why it matters: Tigo's revenue guidance shows it can grow despite challenges. This shows management's confidence.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue guidance for 2026 is between $130 million and $135 million.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance from the current range.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide updates on revenue, EBITDA, and margins. This is key for assessing Tigo's financial health.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth. It also shows a positive adjusted EBITDA.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows falling revenue. It also shows a negative adjusted EBITDA.
Why it matters: The earnings call will provide insights into Tigo's performance and future outlook.
Watch forPositive comments and results were shared during the earnings call on August 4.
Also watch forNegative outlook or bad results were shared during the earnings call.
Why it matters: Lower inventory levels show better supply chain management. This can improve cash flow.
Supportive ifInventory levels drop below $20 million in Q3.
Worry ifInventory levels are above $20 million in Q3.
Why it matters: This launch is key for future sales growth. Delays could hurt revenue expectations.
Supportive ifThe launch was successful. Initial sales for the new inverter solution are positive.
Worry ifThere are more delays for the launch of the new inverter solution.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA shows Tigo is making money. This means they are doing well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA loss narrows to less than $(1) million in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss grows to more than $(1) million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$323 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $926 loss on $10,000 · 9.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,984 loss on $10,000 · 79.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.