Tyler Technologies (TYL)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-07-07
$321.60+0.81%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $321.60. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $322 TYL trades at 28× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median. Our $399 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $340–$455. Not investment advice.
$340.00 – $455.00 (median $420.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 132% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 13.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $9.11/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $420.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $595.33 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $602.74 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $146.77 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $479.27 | 38.0 | 12.63 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $182.82 | 14.4 | 12.18 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $306.93 | 19.3 | 15.94 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $440.74 | 38.0 | 11.61 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $185.49 | 3.4 | 55.18 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $166.10 | 14.3 | 11.61 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $97.70 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $495.94 | 42.7 | 11.61 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $455.50 | 38.0 | 12.00 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $786.05 | 38.0 | 20.71 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $466.80 | 19.3 | 24.24 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $629.41 | 38.0 | 16.58 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $244.63 | 3.4 | 72.77 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $237.20 | 14.3 | 16.58 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $708.24 | 42.7 | 16.58 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $1093.19 | 38.0 | 28.80 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $617.34 | 19.3 | 32.06 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $724.96 | 38.0 | 19.10 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $281.77 | 3.4 | 83.82 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $273.21 | 14.3 | 19.10 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $815.76 | 42.7 | 19.10 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.