Tyler Technologies (TYL)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$364.03-4.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TYL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TYL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 29, 2026, Tyler Technologies, Inc. issued the earnings news release announcing results from operations and financial condition as of June 30, 2026, attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, which news release is incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: SaaS revenue growth is key for Tyler. A drop below 20% could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 SaaS revenue growth reported below 20%.
Less concerning ifQ3 SaaS revenue growth remains at or above 20%.
Why it matters: A strong share buyback plan shows management's confidence. Over $1 billion shows they are investing heavily.
Supportive ifTotal share buybacks are over $1 billion by year-end.
Worry ifTotal share buybacks are under $1 billion by year-end.
Why it matters: Good integration can make Tyler's products better. It can also help in the justice market.
Supportive ifPublic news of successful integration steps within 6 months.
Worry ifNews of integration problems or delays within 6 months.
Why it matters: The new credit agreement gives financial flexibility. This will affect Tyler's growth plans.
Supportive ifTyler uses the $1 billion credit facility for growth plans.
Worry ifTyler does not use the credit facility well. This affects growth plans.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $415 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,137 loss on $10,000 · 51.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cash flow is vital for funding growth and operations. A drop may indicate financial strain.
Worry ifQ2 cash flow from operations reported below $100 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 cash flow from operations reported at or above $100 million.
Why it matters: Recurring revenue growth shows Tyler's stability. Slower growth may raise concerns about future performance.
Worry ifRecurring revenue growth is below 8%.
Less concerning ifRecurring revenue growth remains at or above 8%.
Why it matters: Annualized recurring revenue (ARR) growth reflects the health of Tyler's subscription model. A slowdown could raise concerns.
Worry ifARR growth reported below 8% in Q3.
Less concerning ifARR growth remains at or above 8% in Q3.
Why it matters: Free cash flow margin is a measure of financial health. A drop may indicate cash flow issues.
Worry ifFree cash flow margin reported at 26% or higher for Q2.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow margin reported below 26% for Q2.
Why it matters: The notes could dilute shares if converted. Monitoring this will help assess potential impacts on stock value.
Worry ifTyler's stock price is over $655.77. This may cause dilution from the notes.
Less concerning ifMarket price remains below $655.77, limiting the risk of dilution from the notes.
Why it matters: Good integration of acquisitions can make Tyler's products better. This can help growth.
Supportive ifThere are positive updates on how For The Record fits into Tyler's products.
Worry ifReports of integration challenges or delays with For The Record.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback show that management believes in the stock's value.
Supportive ifThey announced more shares bought back under the $1.5 billion program.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Integrating acquisitions well is important for growth. Problems could hurt future results.
Worry ifManagement says they have integrated and found synergies from the For The Record deal.
Less concerning ifManagement talks about problems or extra costs from the For The Record purchase.