Tyler Technologies (TYL)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$364.03-4.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — SaaS revenue grows 12% or more: rev +8.2% vs 12%.
Tyler grows SaaS revenue over 20% a year. It repurchases 2.5% of shares in 2026. Recurring revenue rises at least 10% yearly. Free cash flow stays strong near 27%.
SaaS revenue growth may slow due to weak investor sentiment. Profit growth could stall if recurring revenue falls. Share buybacks might slow if cash flow weakens.
The price is about 19% below our fair value near $397. Analysts expect about 12% revenue growth. Our fair value is slightly below the Street median of $420.
Breaks if: Free cash flow margin falls below 23% in FY26
Breaks if: Recurring revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year
Breaks if: SaaS revenue growth falls below 12% YoY next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on recurring revenue streams. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial performance remains strong, although management has shown some volatility.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, with expectations slightly below neutral. TYL's valuation is aligned with peers, but it carries a premium, reflecting the market's confidence in its growth trajectory.
Fundamentals are likely to continue reflecting strong SaaS growth and recurring revenue increases, as management has consistently prioritized these areas. However, there is an elevated risk due to past earnings misses, which could impact future performance.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on growth strategies. Additionally, external factors like Fed rate cuts and performance from sector leaders could significantly influence TYL's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the view on SaaS revenue growth. Additionally, AI adoption in Nebraska and a cloud win in Alabama enhance growth potential.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Share repurchases fall below 1.5% of shares in 2026
In the next 1-3 years, TYL's performance will depend on its execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.