Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Under Armour (Class C) (UA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.36-3.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.19 → 0.19 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin increases to about 47.5% | Gross margin is targeted to increase to about 47.5% next quarter. | Improving | gross margin falls below 47.2% in 2026-Q4 | Gross margin: 54.09% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= 47.2% and <= 47.5%. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 202654.086656 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a turnaround thesis, centered on cost control and better margins rather than a proven earnings compounder. The multi-year view remains uncertain: management is advancing its restructuring, but recent performance is weak and earnings are loss-making overall.
UA appears cheap versus peers, while the valuation signal has improved recently; confidence in that comparison is low. The evidence tags pricing as justified and shows no fragility flags, but does not specify exactly what earnings recovery the market assumes.
Near term, results remain uneven: UA missed its most recent quarter and has had erratic earnings surprises, with a 42% estimated chance of a miss. Management has raised the restructuring cost estimate, with the plan expected to be substantially complete by December 31, 2026; operating income improved in the latest quarter, while gross margin benefited from tariff refunds and pricing. The fiscal 2027 operating income and gross-margin goals show a path management is pursuing, but delivery is not yet established.
The next call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut would add pressure to an already weak earnings picture. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on whether restructuring and expense discipline improve operating results and whether margin gains persist beyond tariff refunds. Sector bellwethers such as RL, LEVI, and VFC are also useful signals: continued strength could support the sector backdrop, while weaker results could remove that tailwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, UA’s case rests on a still-incomplete turnaround, with restructuring progress balanced against weak momentum and meaningful earnings risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company aims to raise operating income to $116 million in fiscal Q4 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| operating income falls below $96 million in 2026-Q4 |
Operating income: $46.739M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $96 million and <= $116 million. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 202646,739,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “To achieve this, the company expects to substantially offset the impact of lower revenue through disciplined expense management and a more agile and disciplined operating model while continuing to invest in the areas most critical to strengthening the brand.” “• SG&A expenses are expected to decline at a low-double-digit rate, compared with the prior outlook of a mid-teen percentage decline.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Restructuring plan advances to improve financial efficiency | Under Armour is working on a restructuring plan to improve costs. | Under Pressure | restructuring efforts stall or reverse | Restructuring costs revised up to >$255M vs target of continued progress Restructuring costs revised up; partnership ended amid store closures; bearish short report issued. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes or grows modestly | A primary condition in Under Armour (Class C)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -1% YoY. | Broken | revenue declines more than 1% year-over-year in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.23 → $0.19 · observed estimates
$5.08B → $4.81B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.23 | $5,078,479,902 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | Unavailable | $5,080,360,810 | — / 23 |
| 2026-07-26 | Unavailable | $5,080,360,810 | — / 23 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.23 | $5,078,479,902 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | Unavailable | $5,080,360,810 | — / 23 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.23 | $5,078,479,902 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.23 | $5,078,479,902 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unavailable | $5,080,272,470 | — / 23 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.23 | $5,078,367,013 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | Unavailable | $5,080,272,470 | — / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.23 | $5,078,367,013 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.23 | $5,078,367,013 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | Unavailable | $5,081,202,900 | — / 23 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.23 | $5,078,367,013 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.23 | $5,079,227,026 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | Unavailable | $5,080,961,820 | — / 23 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.23 | $5,079,227,026 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | Unavailable | $4,866,571,850 | — / 23 |
| 2026-08-13 | Unavailable | $4,866,571,850 | — / 23 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.23 | $5,079,227,026 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.23 | $5,079,227,026 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.23 | $5,079,227,026 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.23 | $5,079,227,026 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.23 | $5,079,227,026 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.23 | $5,079,227,026 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.19 | $4,846,221,421 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.19 | $4,846,221,421 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.19 | $4,846,221,421 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.19 | $4,846,221,421 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.19 | $4,846,221,421 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.19 | $4,846,223,754 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.19 | $4,838,768,321 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.19 | $4,838,768,321 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.19 | $4,838,768,321 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.19 | $4,838,768,321 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.19 | $4,838,768,321 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.19 | $4,838,768,321 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.19 | $4,838,768,321 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.19 | $4,838,768,321 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.19 | $4,838,768,321 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.19 | $4,838,768,321 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.19 | $4,838,768,321 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.19 | $4,838,768,321 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.19 | $4,838,768,321 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.19 | $4,838,768,321 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.19 | $4,818,172,169 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.19 | $4,818,172,169 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.19 | $4,818,172,169 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.19 | $4,818,172,169 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.19 | $4,818,172,169 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.19 | $4,818,172,169 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.19 | $4,818,172,169 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.19 | $4,818,172,169 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.19 | $4,818,172,169 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.19 | $4,818,172,169 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.19 | $4,818,172,169 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.19 | $4,815,047,888 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.19 | $4,815,047,888 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.19 | $4,815,047,888 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.19 | $4,815,047,888 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.19 | $4,815,047,888 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.19 | $4,815,047,888 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.19 | $4,815,047,888 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.19 | $4,815,047,888 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.19 | $4,815,047,888 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.19 | $4,815,047,888 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.19 | $4,815,047,888 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.19 | $4,813,066,808 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.19 | $4,809,995,496 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.19 | $4,809,995,496 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.19 | $4,809,995,496 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.19 | $4,809,995,496 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.19 | $4,809,995,496 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.19 | $4,809,995,496 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.19 | $4,809,995,496 | 1 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.