Under Armour (Class C) (UA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.58+8.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
UA — strategy / product update — Costs Associated With Exit or Disposal Activities
Dated 2026-05-12
Costs Associated With Exit or Disposal Activities. On May 12, 2026, the Company announced an update to its previously disclosed fiscal year 2025 restructuring plan designed to strengthen and support its financial and operational efficiencies. Previously, the Company expected to incur up to $255 million of pre-tax restructuring and related charges in connection with its fiscal year 2025 restructuring plan. After further review, the Company has identified additional opportunities. On May 11, 20…
Why it matters: The first-quarter margin jump came mainly from tariff refunds. The full-year goal also needs gains from pricing and lower discounts.
Watch forFiscal 2027 gross margin rises 220 to 270 basis points year over year, with gains beyond the roughly 150 basis points from tariff refunds.
Also watch forFiscal 2027 gross margin rises less than 220 basis points year over year, or falls after the tariff refund benefit.
Why it matters: The next report comes as management has cut its revenue outlook to a mid-single-digit decline. A smaller drop would ease concern about weak demand.
Watch forThe November 6 report shows revenue down less than 5% year over year. This beats the mid-single-digit decline outlook.
Also watch forThe November 6 report shows revenue down 7% or more year over year. This is worse than the mid-single-digit decline outlook.
Why it matters: North America fell 9% in the first quarter. A smaller drop would show demand is stabilizing.
Supportive ifIn the next report, North America revenue falls less than 5% year over year. This beats the mid-single-digit decline outlook.
Worry ifNorth America revenue falls 7% or more year over year. This is worse than the mid-single-digit outlook.
Why it matters: First-quarter eCommerce revenue fell 12%. A smaller drop or growth would show progress in a key direct-sales channel.
Supportive ifeCommerce revenue is flat or grows year over year in a later quarter.
Worry ifeCommerce revenue falls 12% or more year over year again.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$204 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $511 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,645 loss on $10,000 · 46.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.