Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Under Armour (Class A) (UAA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.57-3.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.19 → 0.19 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UAA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS reaching about -$0.03 | A supporting condition in Under Armour (Class A)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=-0.03. | Intact | falls below -$0.05 | Diluted EPS: $0.00 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=-0.03. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20260 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a turnaround-style thesis, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state, with recent company momentum improving but financial performance still weak relative to its industry cohort.
The valuation model points to an expensive premium versus peers, while confidence in that estimate is low. The expectations gap is meaningful, and the evidence labels the current pricing as unjustified, though it does not indicate a high level of fragility.
Near term, losses and weak recent performance keep execution risk elevated. Company momentum has improved, but the latest quarter was missed and the evidence notes a deep miss in the recent history; a guidance cut on the next call would be a negative development.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether management avoids another guidance cut and improves the operating picture. Sector signals also matter: continued strong results from RL, LEVI, and VFC could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the 1-to-3-year view, UAA shows a possible improvement in momentum but has not yet overcome weak fundamentals and an expensive peer valuation. The thesis depends on clearer execution and a supportive sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company aims for a gross margin of about 2.45%. |
| Intact |
| falls below 2.2% |
Gross margin: 54.09% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=2.45%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202654.086656 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth reaching about $4.73 billion | Revenue could reach about $4.73 billion by March 2027. | Under Pressure | falls below $4.5 billion | Revenue: $1.098B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=4.73 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20261,097,927,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.23 → $0.19 · observed estimates
$5.08B → $4.81B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.23 | $5,075,636,615 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.24 | $5,080,360,810 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.24 | $5,080,360,810 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.24 | $5,080,360,810 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.24 | $5,080,360,810 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.23 | $5,075,636,615 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.23 | $5,075,636,615 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.24 | $5,080,272,470 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.23 | $5,075,529,667 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.24 | $5,080,272,470 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.23 | $5,075,529,667 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.23 | $5,075,529,667 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.23 | $5,080,961,820 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.23 | $5,075,529,667 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.23 | $5,080,961,820 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.23 | $5,080,961,820 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.23 | $5,076,344,417 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.20 | $4,866,571,850 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.20 | $4,866,571,850 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.23 | $5,076,344,417 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.23 | $5,076,344,417 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.23 | $5,076,344,417 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.23 | $5,076,344,417 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.23 | $5,076,344,417 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.23 | $5,076,344,417 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.20 | $4,845,894,626 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.20 | $4,845,894,626 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.20 | $4,845,894,626 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.20 | $4,845,894,626 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.20 | $4,845,894,626 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.20 | $4,845,896,853 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.20 | $4,838,779,783 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.20 | $4,838,779,783 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.20 | $4,838,779,783 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.20 | $4,838,779,783 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.20 | $4,838,779,783 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.20 | $4,838,779,783 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.20 | $4,838,779,783 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.20 | $4,838,779,783 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.20 | $4,838,779,783 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.20 | $4,838,779,783 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.20 | $4,838,779,783 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.20 | $4,838,779,783 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.20 | $4,838,779,783 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.20 | $4,838,779,783 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.19 | $4,819,120,340 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.19 | $4,819,120,340 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.19 | $4,819,120,340 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.19 | $4,819,120,340 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.19 | $4,819,120,340 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.19 | $4,819,120,340 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.19 | $4,819,120,340 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.19 | $4,819,120,340 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.19 | $4,819,120,340 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.19 | $4,819,120,340 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.19 | $4,819,120,340 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.19 | $4,819,120,340 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.19 | $4,816,090,673 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.19 | $4,816,090,673 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.19 | $4,816,090,673 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.19 | $4,816,090,673 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.19 | $4,816,090,673 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.19 | $4,816,090,673 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.19 | $4,816,090,673 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.19 | $4,816,090,673 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.19 | $4,816,090,673 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.19 | $4,816,090,673 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.19 | $4,815,084,590 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.19 | $4,815,084,590 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.19 | $4,815,084,590 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.19 | $4,813,996,075 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.19 | $4,813,066,808 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.19 | $4,813,066,808 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.19 | $4,809,995,496 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.19 | $4,809,995,496 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.19 | $4,809,995,496 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.19 | $4,809,995,496 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.19 | $4,809,995,496 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.19 | $4,809,995,496 | 14 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 18 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.