United Airlines Holdings (UAL)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$111.38+2.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UAL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $111 UAL trades at 12× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $192 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $148–$190. Note: our $192 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($148–$190). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $165.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $136.05 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $299.13 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $102.09 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$148.00 – $190.00 (median $165.00) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-07-19
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $239.52 |
| 24.0 |
| 10.00 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $314.36 | 15.4 | 23.86 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $173.21 | 22.2 | 7.79 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $237.99 | 19.3 | 12.31 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $313.12 | 1.6 | 192.59 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $319.46 | 34.1 | 9.37 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $64.18 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $228.31 | 24.0 | 9.53 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $752.27 | 24.0 | 31.41 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $257.58 | 22.2 | 11.58 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $348.10 | 19.3 | 18.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $417.16 | 1.6 | 256.59 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $613.64 | 34.1 | 18.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $335.59 | 22.2 | 15.09 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $419.70 | 19.3 | 21.70 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $502.96 | 1.6 | 309.37 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $739.85 | 34.1 | 21.70 | Analyst | medium |