United Airlines Holdings (UAL)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlinesSnapshot 2026-07-08
$126.22-1.63%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $126.22. As of 2026-07-09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $126 UAL trades at 12× p/e, below its 31× p/e peer median. Our $204 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $112–$185. Note: our $204 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($112–$185). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $153.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $290.83 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $359.68 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $109.35 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$112.00 – $185.00 (median $153.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $308.98 |
| 30.9 |
| 10.00 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $363.03 | 18.7 | 22.25 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $274.62 | 28.0 | 9.81 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $338.02 | 30.9 | 10.94 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $651.73 | 3.5 | 185.02 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $466.89 | 42.7 | 10.94 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $68.96 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $109.27 | 10.0 | 10.94 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $354.65 | 30.9 | 11.48 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $568.84 | 30.9 | 18.41 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $417.66 | 28.0 | 14.92 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $533.16 | 30.9 | 17.26 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $879.13 | 3.5 | 249.58 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $736.42 | 42.7 | 17.26 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $172.35 | 10.0 | 17.26 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $854.46 | 30.9 | 27.65 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $552.36 | 28.0 | 19.74 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $648.25 | 30.9 | 20.98 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1068.90 | 3.5 | 303.45 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $895.38 | 42.7 | 20.98 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $209.55 | 10.0 | 20.98 | Analyst | medium |