United Airlines Holdings (UAL)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$111.38+2.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UAL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
UAL — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation
Dated 2026-02-06
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information described under
Why it matters: New updates in merger talks could change the competition. They may also affect regulations and how investors feel.
Watch forNew merger talks or proposals are announced. This shows renewed interest.
Also watch forNo new merger talks or announcements happen. This confirms the current situation.
Why it matters: Raising EPS guidance shows confidence in money health. It also shows strong operations.
Supportive ifManagement raises Q3 adjusted EPS guidance above the current range of $9.00 to $11.00.
Worry ifNo change or a drop in EPS guidance shows possible financial weakness.
Why it matters: Capacity choices show how United deals with higher fuel costs and demand.
Watch forQ3 capacity growth is flat or up only 2% year-over-year.
Also watch forCapacity growth is over 2% year-over-year. This shows strong expansion.
Why it matters: Recovering fuel costs is key to keeping profits as expenses rise.
Supportive ifUnited recovers 80% to 90% of the fuel expense increase in Q3.
Worry ifRecovery is below 80%. This shows ongoing pressure on profits.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$222 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $457 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,750 loss on $10,000 · 27.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is vital for funding growth and reducing debt.
Worry ifFree cash flow guidance remains similar to 2025 levels.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow guidance is cut a lot from earlier expectations.
Why it matters: A clear plan to reduce capacity shows United's response to rising fuel costs. It may impact earnings.
Worry ifUnited plans to cut capacity by more than 4 points for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCapacity stays the same or goes up from current plans.
Why it matters: Capacity changes will show how well United handles rising fuel costs. This impacts revenue.
Watch forUnited keeps Q3 capacity the same or raises it by up to 2% from last year.
Also watch forUnited cuts Q3 capacity by more than 5% from its original plans.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding growth and paying down debt. It shows financial health.
Watch forFree cash flow in Q3 matches or exceeds the level generated in Q2.
Also watch forFree cash flow in Q3 is significantly lower than the $322 million generated in Q2.
Why it matters: Changes in capacity will affect revenue and profits. A clear plan shows how United is handling costs with rising fuel prices.
Watch forManagement says there is a 4-point drop in planned domestic capacity for the year.
Also watch forNo capacity cuts are announced. This may mean revenue pressure is coming.
Why it matters: Capacity growth shows strong demand. It also means better operations, which helps revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 capacity growth is over 2% from last year. This shows strong demand is back.
Worry ifQ3 capacity growth is flat or down year-over-year. This suggests weak demand.
Why it matters: Higher fuel prices could hurt margins. Monitoring this helps gauge financial health.
Worry ifFuel costs increase by less than $340 million compared to Q1 2025.
Less concerning ifFuel costs increase by more than $340 million compared to Q1 2025.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for financial health. Meeting or exceeding guidance shows strong cash management.
Supportive ifFree cash flow in 2026 meets or exceeds $2.7 billion.
Worry ifFree cash flow is below $2 billion. This shows cash management problems.
Why it matters: Fuel prices are a major cost for airlines. Rising prices could squeeze margins, while stable or falling prices could support profitability.
Worry ifAverage fuel price per gallon stays the same or drops from $2.78.
Less concerning ifAverage fuel price per gallon goes up past $3.00, affecting profits.
Why it matters: Higher customer satisfaction shows good service investments. This can lead to loyalty and more money.
Supportive ifCustomer satisfaction scores rose in Q3, reaching new highs.
Worry ifCustomer satisfaction scores fell or stayed the same in Q3.