United Airlines Holdings (UAL)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$115.76+7.98%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UAL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -32.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 11.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UAL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-20
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 20, 2026, United Airlines Holdings, Inc. ("UAL"), the holding company whose subsidiary is United Airlines, Inc. ("United," and together with UAL, the "Company"), issued a press release (the "Earnings Press Release") announcing the financial results of the Company for the third quarter of 2026. A copy of the Earnings Press Release is furnished pursuant to this
Why it matters: United linked stronger revenue to demand across cabins, loyalty, business travel, and cargo. A miss would weaken that broad growth story.
Supportive ifQ4 total operating revenue rises more than 20% from a year earlier, per the October 20 release.
Worry ifQ4 total operating revenue growth is 20% or less year over year.
Why it matters: Fuel expense rose $1.8 billion year over year in Q3. Full recovery of higher fuel costs would ease pressure on earnings.
Supportive ifUnited reports that Q4 revenue recovered 100% of the fuel cost increase, matching its Q2 plan.
Worry ifUnited reports Q4 recovery below 100% of the fuel cost increase.
Why it matters: Low cancellations test United's stated focus on reliable service. A loss of that position would weaken a key customer promise.
Watch forUnited again reports the lowest seat cancellation rate among the three largest U.S. airlines.
Also watch forAnother one of the three largest U.S. airlines posts a lower seat cancellation rate than United.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$193 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $433 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,976 loss on $10,000 · 29.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.