Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
United Airlines Holdings (UAL)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$115.76+7.98%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.89 → 11.75 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UAL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reduce scheduled domestic capacity by 4 points | A supporting condition in United Airlines Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is 4 percentage points reduction. | Intact | Capacity reduction target not met by end of 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
UAL is an airline business with a multi-year view that depends on execution and sector conditions, rather than a low-risk compounder. The thesis is currently intact, though the recent earnings miss and weakening company momentum temper the picture.
UAL is described as cheap versus peers, and the pricing evidence shows low fragility with expectations broadly justified. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting limited evidence of unusually low expectations, but confidence in the valuation model is medium.
Management priorities around customer experience, network expansion, and reliability are on track, with reported progress in customer satisfaction, service reliability, revenue, and operating income. Near term, performance is mixed: UAL recently missed earnings after earlier beats, and company momentum fell; sector conditions remain a headwind.
A key risk is whether UAL can sustain its raised guidance, since a reversal could weaken management credibility. The sector backdrop also matters: continued earnings strength and higher guidance from bellwethers could support the operating environment, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis rests on continued delivery in customer experience, network growth, and reliability, alongside a sector backdrop that is currently challenging. The setup is supported by execution but carries elevated risk and recent signs of weaker momentum. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit per share is expected near $1.25 next quarter. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS guidance midpoint falls below $1.0 next quarter |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Free cash flow at least $2.7 billion in 2026 | Free cash flow should stay around $2.7 billion in 2026. | Under Pressure | Free cash flow falls below $2.0 billion in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain about 10% revenue growth | A primary condition in United Airlines Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 17.41% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 21, 202617.405583 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$15.50 → $11.75 · observed estimates
$71.13B → $73.97B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $15.50 | $71,128,641,430 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-07-25 | $15.50 | $71,128,641,430 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-07-26 | $15.50 | $71,128,641,430 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-07-27 | $15.46 | $71,152,554,740 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-07-28 | $15.47 | $71,154,281,968 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $15.47 | $71,154,281,968 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $15.47 | $71,154,281,968 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $15.46 | $71,152,554,740 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-08-01 | $15.47 | $71,154,281,968 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $15.46 | $71,152,554,740 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-08-03 | $15.47 | $71,154,279,508 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $15.47 | $71,154,279,508 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-05 | $15.46 | $71,152,554,740 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-08-06 | $15.46 | $71,152,554,740 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-08-08 | $15.46 | $71,152,550,650 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-08-09 | $15.46 | $71,152,550,650 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-08-10 | $15.47 | $71,163,102,342 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $15.46 | $71,152,550,650 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-08-13 | $15.46 | $71,152,550,650 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-08-14 | $15.47 | $71,163,102,342 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $15.47 | $71,163,102,342 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $15.47 | $71,163,102,342 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $15.47 | $71,163,102,342 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $15.47 | $71,163,102,342 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $15.47 | $71,163,102,342 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $15.26 | $71,050,666,408 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-21 | $15.16 | $70,950,808,449 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-22 | $15.16 | $70,951,899,358 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-23 | $15.16 | $70,951,899,358 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $15.16 | $70,951,899,358 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $14.99 | $71,007,217,540 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-26 | $15.09 | $71,107,075,501 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | $15.09 | $71,107,075,501 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-28 | $15.09 | $71,107,075,501 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-29 | $15.06 | $71,111,211,864 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | $15.06 | $71,111,211,864 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-31 | $15.06 | $71,111,211,864 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-01 | $15.06 | $71,111,211,864 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-02 | $15.06 | $71,111,211,864 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $15.06 | $71,111,211,864 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.98 | $71,150,978,238 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.98 | $71,150,978,238 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.98 | $71,150,978,238 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.98 | $71,150,978,238 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.98 | $71,150,978,238 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $14.91 | $71,198,978,238 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $14.84 | $71,272,906,076 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.84 | $71,272,896,985 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.77 | $71,272,896,985 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.77 | $71,272,896,985 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.77 | $71,272,896,985 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.95 | $71,516,653,985 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.95 | $71,516,653,985 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.79 | $71,516,653,985 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.79 | $71,516,653,985 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.79 | $71,516,653,985 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.75 | $71,626,837,776 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.75 | $71,626,837,776 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $14.75 | $71,626,837,776 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.75 | $71,626,837,776 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.75 | $71,626,837,776 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.66 | $71,634,222,589 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.66 | $71,634,222,589 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.50 | $71,805,584,864 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.50 | $71,805,584,864 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.27 | $71,898,378,612 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.27 | $71,898,378,612 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.23 | $72,010,950,040 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.23 | $72,010,950,040 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.89 | $72,283,367,795 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.89 | $72,283,367,795 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.89 | $72,283,367,795 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.80 | $72,410,686,065 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.56 | $72,596,238,551 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.20 | $72,712,359,102 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.89 | $72,760,010,928 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.89 | $72,760,010,928 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.89 | $72,760,010,928 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.89 | $72,760,010,928 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.89 | $72,766,053,785 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.89 | $72,766,053,785 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.89 | $72,766,053,785 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.90 | $72,766,053,785 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.90 | $72,766,053,785 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.73 | $72,808,549,898 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.73 | $72,808,549,898 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.58 | $72,999,111,202 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.58 | $73,035,603,054 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.30 | $73,650,456,883 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.13 | $73,812,124,429 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.98 | $73,856,936,955 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.98 | $73,856,936,955 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.98 | $73,856,936,955 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.98 | $73,856,936,955 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.98 | $73,856,936,955 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.98 | $73,856,936,955 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.90 | $73,928,982,409 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.75 | $73,974,936,955 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.75 | $73,974,936,955 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.75 | $73,974,936,955 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.75 | $73,974,936,955 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.75 | $73,974,936,955 | 14 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.