Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
United States Antimony Corp. (UAMY)
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.98+3.47%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.07 → 0.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UAMY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deliver $75 million of antimony ingots in 2026 | It plans $75 million in antimony ingot sales. | Improving | antimony ingot sales fall below $60 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making growth story with some cyclical support from a favorable materials-sector backdrop. The long-term thesis is in watch mode: operating progress is visible, but recent financial performance remains weak and management execution has been volatile.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with an expectations gap of 8.32 and low confidence in the valuation model. The evidence points to expectations built around future optionality, or potential value from growth that has not yet been proven, but the expensive valuation alone does not make the overall setup unusually fragile.
Near term, higher second-quarter revenue, a narrower operating loss, initial DLA shipments, and growth in zeolite sales show progress, while the company remains loss-making. The lowered 2026 revenue guidance and recent performance well below the industry cohort are important risks; the completed acquisition and higher quality score are positive changes, but do not yet establish a stronger earnings trend.
A key favorable scenario is a guidance reversal next quarter, supported by continued growth in domestic antimony capacity and zeolite sales. The thesis also depends on delivering more antimony under the DLA contract and on materials-sector bellwethers continuing to report strong results; weaker results from those companies could remove some sector support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, UAMY has concrete operating progress and a supportive sector backdrop, but its long-term thesis remains unproven against losses, reduced guidance, and high execution risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management wants to improve operating income from losses. |
| Broken |
| operating income loss worsens beyond -$7.5 million in FY26 |
Operating income: $-6.981M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: reduce loss to less than -$3 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 2026-6,980,900 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $125 million revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in United States Antimony Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $125 million. | Broken | revenue falls below $100 million in FY26 | Revenue: $7.926M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $125 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 20267,925,601 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.31 → $0.11 · observed estimates
$0.24B → $0.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.31 | $242,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.31 | $242,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.31 | $242,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.31 | $242,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.04 | $242,233,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.31 | $242,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.31 | $242,066,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.04 | $242,233,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.31 | $242,066,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.04 | $242,233,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.31 | $242,066,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.31 | $242,066,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.04 | $242,233,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.04 | $242,233,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.25 | $242,066,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.04 | $242,233,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.25 | $242,066,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.04 | $242,233,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.04 | $242,233,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.25 | $242,066,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.25 | $242,066,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.25 | $242,066,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.25 | $242,066,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.25 | $242,066,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.25 | $242,066,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.04 | $227,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.04 | $227,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.04 | $227,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.04 | $227,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.04 | $227,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.04 | $227,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.04 | $227,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.04 | $227,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.04 | $227,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.07 | $201,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.11 | $189,075,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.