Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
United Bancorp Inc/OH (UBCP)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.52+1.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.62 → 1.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UBCP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
continue regular dividend payments | A supporting condition in United Bancorp Inc/OH's published investment case. The stated target is pay regular dividends each quarter. | Intact | dividends cut or suspended next year | 3/3 regular dividends paid vs 4/4 target Press releases confirm regular dividend declarations for Q1, Q2, and Q3 2026, with no evidence of cuts or suspensions. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small-bank growth and income business, not a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is mildly favorable because earnings, assets, and dividends are growing alongside infrastructure investment, though the current thesis remains on watch.
UBCP looks cheap versus peers, but its valuation has risen sharply and the evidence tags expectations as stretched. The market appears to allow for some improvement, while the low fragility reading suggests the setup is not broadly dependent on perfect execution.
Near-term results have been mixed relative to the industry, and the company has missed in recent quarters, though two recent earnings updates were positive. In the latest quarter, net income and diluted earnings per share rose while assets grew, and management remains on track with infrastructure, balance-sheet, and dividend priorities. Risk remains elevated, especially if recently raised guidance is reversed.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on continued earnings growth while infrastructure spending proceeds and assets move toward management’s stated goal. Near-term, a guidance reversal would damage credibility, while the direction of interest rates and earnings trends at sector bellwethers could affect the sector backdrop.
UBCP has evidence of steady execution and a cheap-versus-peers valuation, but stretched expectations, elevated risk, and weaker performance than its industry leave the 1-to-3-year thesis conditional. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in United Bancorp Inc/OH's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.35 USD_PER_SHARE. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $1.35 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We firmly believe that over the course of the next twelve to twenty-four months, we will see a very nice return on these investments in our Company’s infrastructure, which should lead to higher levels of earnings and help ensure the relevancy of UBCP for many years to come.”” “In addition, we are very satisfied with the progress that we are making on the execution of our plan relating to our investment in infrastructural improvements that will help ensure our relevancy for many years to come and help us achieve our vision of becoming a community financial institution with assets of $1.0 billion or greater in the very near term.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
invest in infrastructure to support future earnings growth | It invests in infrastructure to grow earnings. | Intact | infrastructure investment declines materially next year | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We firmly believe that over the course of the next twelve to twenty-four months, we will see a very nice return on these investments in our Company’s infrastructure, which should lead to higher levels of earnings and help ensure the relevancy of UBCP for many years to come.”” “In addition, we are very satisfied with the progress that we are making on the execution of our plan relating to our investment in infrastructural improvements that will help ensure our relevancy for many years to come and help us achieve our vision of becoming a community financial institution with assets of $1.0 billion or greater in the very near term.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.60 → $1.62 · observed estimates
$0.03B → $0.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.60 | $28,384,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.60 | $28,384,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.60 | $28,384,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.62 | $28,384,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.60 | $28,384,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.62 | $28,384,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.62 | $28,384,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.62 | $28,384,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.62 | $28,384,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.62 | $28,384,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.62 | $28,384,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.62 | $28,384,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.62 | $28,863,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.