United Bancorp Inc/OH (UBCP)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.88+0.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UBCP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -24.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 220 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UBCP — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-20
Other Events. On August 20, 2026, United Bancorp, Inc. issued a press release announcing the declaration by its Board of Directors on August 19, 2026 of the Company’s dividend for the third quarter of 2026, which will be payable on September 18, 2026 to shareholders of record on September 10, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth for the sector may point to bigger economic problems.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above the median.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact UBCP's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% in the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of 15% in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good management. It also shows successful investments in infrastructure.
Supportive ifQ3 net income growth exceeds 5% compared to Q3 last year.
Worry ifQ3 net income growth is below 5% compared to Q3 last year.
Why it matters: Earnings growth shows how well the company is doing. It also shows the success of investments.
Supportive ifThe Q3 earnings report shows diluted EPS above $0.36. This means growth is continuing.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows diluted EPS below $0.36, suggesting growth may be stalling.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $339 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,623 loss on $10,000 · 16.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More low-cost deposits lower interest costs. This helps the company make more money.
Supportive ifLow-cost deposits grow more than 6% year-over-year by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifLow-cost deposits grow less than 6% year-over-year by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends shows strong finances. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifQ3 dividend increases from $0.1950 to at least $0.20 per share.
Worry ifQ3 dividend remains at $0.1950 or decreases.
Why it matters: Stable credit quality metrics show good risk management. This means a healthy loan portfolio.
Watch forNonaccrual loans and loans past due thirty-plus days remain stable or decrease in Q3 2026.
Also watch forNonaccrual loans and loans past due thirty-plus days increase in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong deposit growth supports UBCP's goal to expand its balance sheet to $1 billion.
Supportive ifTotal deposits increase by more than $44 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal deposits grow less than $44 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this milestone shows progress toward the goal of $1 billion in assets. It reflects growth.
Supportive ifTotal assets reported at or above $900 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal assets remain below $878 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Regular dividend increases show good financial health. They also show care for shareholders.
Supportive ifNext dividend payment increases from $0.1950 to $0.20 or more.
Worry ifDividend payment stays at $0.1950 or goes down.
Why it matters: The dividend increase shows that management cares about giving value to shareholders. It shows good financial health.
Supportive ifThe dividend of $0.1975 is set for September 18, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment may be canceled or reduced.
Why it matters: Growth in net interest income helps the bank make money. It shows good asset management.
Supportive ifNet interest income goes up year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet interest income goes down or stays the same year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More nonaccrual loans could mean higher credit risk. This can affect overall financial health.
Worry ifNonaccrual loans increase beyond $6.9 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNonaccrual loans decrease or stabilize below $6.9 million in Q3 2026.