United Bancorp Inc/OH (UBCP)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.97-0.57%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UBCP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -27.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 231 industry peers
UBCP — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-20
Other Events. On August 20, 2026, United Bancorp, Inc. issued a press release announcing the declaration by its Board of Directors on August 19, 2026 of the Company’s dividend for the third quarter of 2026, which will be payable on September 18, 2026 to shareholders of record on September 10, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith.
Why it matters: Low-cost deposits made up 70.2% of deposits in June and helped lower interest costs. A larger share can support the margin.
Supportive ifThe next report shows lower-cost deposits above $481.9 million and still at least 70.2% of total deposits.
Worry ifLower-cost deposits fall below $481.9 million or their share drops below 70.2%.
Why it matters: UBCP said its margin should keep rising in 2026. A higher margin would show that deposit costs and loan rates still help earnings.
Supportive ifIn the November 5 earnings report, net interest margin is above 3.82%. That was the level reported for the first half of 2026.
Worry ifThe November 5 report shows net interest margin at or below 3.82%.
Why it matters: Management named $1.0 billion in assets as a near-term goal. Continued growth would mark progress toward that target.
Supportive ifA company report says total assets have reached or passed $1.0 billion.
Worry ifThe next report shows assets below $878.0 million, the June 2026 level.
Why it matters: One commercial loan drove most of the rise in nonaccrual loans. Its status will test management’s view that the issue is limited.
Watch forThe next report says the $4.2 million loan is current or has a lower balance. Total past-due and nonaccrual loans fall below $6.9 million.
Also watch forThe loan balance grows, or total past-due and nonaccrual loans rise above $6.9 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $348 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,122 loss on $10,000 · 21.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.