Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$47.35-3.99%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.94 → 4.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UFCS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend at $0.20 per share and expanded buyback program | The company raises dividends to $0.20 per share and expands its share buyback program. | Intact | dividend cut or buyback program halted | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “With confidence in our future financial performance and an enduring commitment to creating long-term value for our shareholders, I am pleased to announce that the board of directors has declared a 25% increase in our quarterly cash dividend from $0.16 per share to $0.20 per share.”” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
UFCS is an insurance business with a growth-and-underwriting improvement thesis, rather than a turnaround story. Its recent results are strong and the thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium.
The valuation signal is mixed: UFCS is described as cheap versus peers, while its premium versus peers is also elevated. The expectations gap is modestly negative, and the evidence labels pricing as justified with low fragility, so the current setup does not point to a clearly stretched market assumption.
Near-term results may continue to reflect commercial premium growth and improved underwriting: second-quarter net written premiums rose 9%, while the combined ratio improved to 95.3% from 96.4%. Management is delivering on growth and the dividend increase, but underwriting progress is mixed, and guidance cuts or weaker results remain risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on UFCS sustaining profitable commercial growth and continuing to improve its combined ratio without cutting guidance. A shift to lower interest rates could weigh on Financials, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the 1 to 3 year view, UFCS has a credible but execution-dependent thesis, supported by strong recent performance and improving underwriting. Rate changes, guidance, and continued delivery on profitability are the main swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Net written premium growth in core commercial business | United Fire Group grows its core commercial insurance business by 12% in Q1 2026. | Intact | net written premium growth falls below 7% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS growth to at least $4.5 in FY 2026 | A primary condition in United Fire Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $4.5 for FY 2026. | Intact | EPS estimate falls below $4.0 for FY 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Combined ratio (profit margin proxy) | Profit margins improve with a combined ratio of 95.6%. | Broken | combined ratio rises above 100% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.64 → $4.94 · observed estimates
$1.67B → $1.78B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.64 | $1,671,772,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.53 | $1,792,535,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.53 | $1,792,535,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.64 | $1,671,772,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.53 | $1,792,535,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.64 | $1,671,772,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.53 | $1,792,535,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.64 | $1,671,772,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.64 | $1,671,772,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.53 | $1,792,535,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.53 | $1,792,535,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.64 | $1,671,772,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.53 | $1,792,535,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.84 | $1,903,364,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.84 | $1,903,364,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.84 | $1,903,364,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.84 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.94 | $1,778,591,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.