United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$55.98-0.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UFCS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 15.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UFCS — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-21
Other Events. At a meeting of the Board of Directors of UFG held on August 21, 2026, the directors declared a $0.20 per share quarterly cash dividend, which will be paid September 18, 2026 to common stock shareholders of record as of September 4, 2026. A copy of the Company’s related press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: A higher combined ratio means less money made from underwriting. This could hurt future earnings.
Worry ifCombined ratio above 96% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCombined ratio at or below 96% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in investment income may show problems in the portfolio. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifInvestment income was below $25 million for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifInvestment income was above $27 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly cash dividend remains at $0.20 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifQuarterly cash dividend reduced below $0.20 per share in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in dividends may show strong cash flow. It also shows management's confidence in future earnings.
Supportive ifManagement says they will raise the dividend to more than $0.20 per share.
Worry ifManagement maintains the dividend at $0.20 per share or lowers it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $223 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,262 loss on $10,000 · 12.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates on the repurchase program show management's trust in how they spend money.
Supportive ifManagement says they bought more shares. This shows good capital management.
Worry ifNo updates or purchases were announced. This suggests a lack of trust in spending.
Why it matters: A slowdown in premium growth may show weaker demand in the main commercial business.
Worry ifQ3 net written premium growth below 8% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 net written premium growth at or above 8% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Slower growth in investment income may show problems in the investment portfolio. This can hurt overall profits.
Worry ifNet investment income growth below 20% year-over-year in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet investment income growth at or above 20% year-over-year in Q3.