United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$49.32-12.94%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UFCS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 15.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UFCS — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-21
Other Events. At a meeting of the Board of Directors of UFG held on August 21, 2026, the directors declared a $0.20 per share quarterly cash dividend, which will be paid September 18, 2026 to common stock shareholders of record as of September 4, 2026. A copy of the Company’s related press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: The Q2 ratio improved to 95.3%, helped by fewer catastrophe losses. A higher Q3 ratio would weaken that progress.
Worry ifQ3 2026 combined ratio is above 95.3%.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 combined ratio is 95.3% or lower.
Why it matters: This ratio strips out catastrophe losses and past reserve changes. A rise above Q2's 92.6% would point to weaker core underwriting results.
Worry ifQ3 2026 underlying combined ratio tops 92.6%.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 underlying combined ratio is 92.6% or lower.
Why it matters: The board allowed up to 2 million share purchases through August 31, 2028. Reported purchases would show the plan is in use.
Supportive ifA company filing or results report says UFG bought back shares under the program.
Worry ifThe next results report shows no share repurchases, or the company ends or cuts the program.
Why it matters: UFG declared a $0.20 dividend in August and paid that amount in Q2. The next board decision will show whether the payout stays in place.
Supportive ifA board filing declares a quarterly cash dividend of at least $0.20 per share.
Worry ifA board filing declares a quarterly dividend under $0.20 per share, or skips it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$95 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $220 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,495 loss on $10,000 · 14.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Core commercial business drove Q2 premium growth. Growth above the company-wide 9% rate would show that focus is still gaining ground.
Supportive ifQ3 net written premium grows more than 9% year over year, with core commercial lines leading growth.
Worry ifQ3 net written premium grows 9% or less year over year, or core commercial lines shrink.
Why it matters: Q2 net investment income rose 33% to $28.9 million. Another increase would extend a key source of earnings growth.
Supportive ifQ3 net investment income exceeds $28.9 million.
Worry ifQ3 net investment income is $28.9 million or lower.